We are almost at the half of 2023, and I don't have a clear picture in my mind how will this year be recorded in the crypto history like.
Of course, that's also the main difficulty. There is still plenty of time left in this year, and I don't have a crystal ball to see what will happen during the following 6-7 months.
There are a few possibilities I consider.
- 2023 will be considered as a year of impressive developments in the crypto sphere
- 2023 will be considered a year of transition, with fewer developments released
- 2023 will be considered the year when crackdown on crypto changed some business models
- 2023 will be considered the year when the US made its worse mistake regarding crypto businesses
- 2023 will be an accumulation year
- 2023 will end up a bull year
Let's take them one by one.
I believe some major releases, unless already announced, are being held off until it's becoming clear we are in a bull market and we are back to a risk-on mainstream narrative. If that happens well before the end of the year, 2023 might have a chance to be considered a year of impressive developments. However, if such developments are not announced, that doesn't mean they aren't being worked on.
That will happen if major development releases will be pushed to 2024 instead of 2023.
Well, we have crackdowns. The question remains what will be their effect. Will everyone start registering under the securities law, despite in some cases not being securities and with a law older than our grandparents? And with a SEC not willing to make any clarifications? Or will they simply leave hostile jurisdictions?
This is linked to the previous point. If businesses will pack up and leave instead of registering and changing their business structure according to what the SEC says, then this may be the year when the US made their worse mistake regarding crypto. I tend to believe this will be split. Some will comply (Coinbase) while others will leave (or close down - Binance.us).
2023 is an accumulation year, at least partially. We rarely, if ever, will have an entire year we can call an accumulation year.
Maybe we are not very happy about the recent evolution in the market, but if we look at bitcoin from the start of the year we are much higher. The problem is what will happen from here to the end of the year. And no, I don't have a prediction.
What do you think? How will 2023 be recorded like?