Trafalgar (Republican biased): Warnock 51-47 among likely voters.
Data For Progress: Warnock 51-49 among LV.
Mitchell Research: Warnock 50-45 among LV.
Landmark Communications: Warnock 52-47 among LV.
Insider Advantage (Republican biased): Warnock 51-48 among LV.
EV turnout was mixed. Not a low turnout runoff, but some blue and red counties were lagging. Hopefully today's turnout is strong. The EV runoff electorate was a bit Blacker than the EV general election electorate, and slightly older. A decent number of people that didn't vote in the general election voted in the runoff- they tended to be younger and non-white.
I'd rather be Warnock here- he outspent Walker and has been leading in the polling- but this race was close enough that turnout could be the decider. Historically Republicans have had better runoff turnout, though no sign of a turnout differential in the early voting. Based on early voting this runoff will have lower turnout than 2021, but much higher than previous Georgia runoffs.