The Iowa Republican Primary is scheduled for January 15, 2024. After two debates the polling gap between Trump and the next closest candidate, Governor Desantis has only widened. Barring an October surprise Trump will be the Republican Candidate for President.
The Republican Party is in disarray - Senator McConnel has failing health, Speaker McCarthy faces another challenge lead by Florida's Representative Gaetz. The faction of the Republican Party that would like to see Trump fade away doesn't have the ability to accomplish it.
Committed Trump voters and the Republican Establishment leadership are out of alignment.
Trump's opponents are effectively running for Cabinet Positions, to influence the the Republican Party discussion, even to secure a post election position on Cable News, but none of them will be the Republican Candidate.
Desantis often appears uncharismatic, Pence's has no support, Haley could be a historic candidates in another election but doesn't have the horsepower to move the working class wing of the Party. The most interesting story out of the campaign so far is Vivek Ramaswamy.
In related news the appointment of Laphonza Butler to complete Senator Feinstein's term - cements Emily's List as one of the most important political advocacy groups in the Democrat Party.
While I'm happily retired from political activism I have served as a Republican Party Officer, played significant roles for State and Federal Campaigns, and was a Delegate to the Republican National Convention. I do still enjoy analysis and pattern recognition, and civil discussion of trends.