Hello.
Running a bit late with this and TEN @ KC just about to kick off, so getting the prediction in first: KC by 10+.
To be updated shortly.
UPDATE: My Goddess, Andy Reid sucks at adjustments. My spread is shot. KC may yet win though. If they grind enough time off the clock + make the damn Figgie.
UPDATE 2: Forget that. That non-called fumble turned out to be decisive. As did the illegal hit on Kelce. Cruel, but Reid SUCKS BADLY AT THIS.
As promised, albeit a bit delayed, we return to wrap up the NFL season and look ahead to the Wild Card round of the playoffs. So, in no particular order, some points before the Wild Card preview:
TOM BRADY
As a Jets fan it of course pains me to say this, but the man is the greatest ever at his position. Nobody in history has played at this level at such an age. It’s just not supposed to be possible – and yet, here we are, with a 40 year-old QB throwing 32 TDs to only 8 INTs (a whole TD better than his career ratio of 3:1), completing 66.3% of his passes (3 points higher than his career average) for 4,500 yards (almost 700 more than his career average) cruising to a #1 seed in the AFC, playing all 16 games. Is it worth eating avocado ice cream and other weird crap? Hey. Shit seems to work. That said, I think that if the recent ESPN article is correct, the Pats may have ultimately overplayed their hand by putting all their eggs in the ageless wonder’s basket. Which brings us to…
JIMMY GAROPPOLO
In September, after it became evident that stud-when-healthy Andrew Luck was nowhere near healthy, the Indianapolis Colts traded middling Wide Receiver Phillip Dorsett to the Patriots in return for third-string QB Jacoby Brissett. In late October, according the aforementioned article, a power-play forced Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick to trade away his QB of the future to the SF 49ers, after rejecting all overtures to do so in the off- and pre-season. Garoppolo had been a hot commodity with a great reputation, but almost no serious game experience (2 starts in 3 years prior . Maybe that’s why the Niners got their guy for so cheap – just a 2nd round pick. Right now, the trade looks like a steal for SF, which won a single game in the 11 before Jimmy G was named the starter, and five more in the five he started to end the season. The TD to INT (7:5) ratio was perhaps underwhelming, but the accuracy was phenomenal at 67.4%, the poise what that of an all-pro veteran, and SF, with a fast young defense, look to be pretty dangerous next year.
LEGION OF BOOM
Well, that was fun. One of the most memorable defenses in recent years, one where the biggest names were in the backfield and linebacker corps rather than the DL, and one that took the team to a title and a single boneheaded play (by the offensive calling) from another one, has most likely come to an end. Beyond being banged up, many of the biggest names are expressing a clear desire for new pastures. Thus we saw all-world safety Earl Thomas, after helping end the Dallas Cowboys’s season in Week 16, say to Cowboys Coach Jason Garrett, “If you have a chance, come get me.” That’s close to cry for help territory. It was a great run.
SAINTS
Who dat gone beat dem Saints? Well, the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, if Cam Newton and Riverboat Ron Rivera have anything to do with it, but it’s gonna be a tall order. The Saints swept the season series (34:13 in week 3, 31:21 in week 13), will be hosting the game down on the bayou by virtue of winning the AFC South, and that’s not all. The Saints have a lethal attack with a two-pronged ground assault in power back Mark Ingram and Offensive Rookie-of-the-Year* sensation Alvin Kamara, who posted over 720 yards and 8 touchdowns on just 120 carries – a shit-like-that-barely-ever-happens figure (4 yards per carry is considered the benchmark of doing your job as a RB. 4.5 is really good. 5 is usually best in the league). He also added over 800 yards and 5 TDs catching the ball, to finish as the team's 2nd leading receiver, with almost double the yards of 3rd place. Otherworldly numbers from a rookie. Oh and the QB? Just the most accurate passer in history, Drew Brees, who doesn’t have that much time left and would love to sneak up on the football world and steal one more ring.
Thing is, kinda like the success of the Eagles and Rams, this was not really to be expected back in August. In 2016 the Saints defense stunk. It was laughable. Horrible, terrible, no good at all, a disgrace to professional football.
And in 2017? Not the last-to-first tale of the L.A. Rams offense, but from 27th in yards and 31st in points allowed in 2016, the Saints in 2017 rose to 17th in yards and more importantly – 10th in points allowed. That’s not stellar, but you can win a title with that. It won’t be easy, but there is some chance of a Cajun party in Minneapolis in four weeks.
How? Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen, who took over from clown Rob Ryan late last season, and (yes, this was quite the stellar draft for New Orleans), almost-certain Defensive Rookie of the Year, CB Marshon Lattimore, who intercepted five passes, returned one for a score and is close after a single season in the league to being considered a “shut-down corner” – the kind that makes it pretty useless to try to pass to the guy he’s covering, who usually happens to be the opponent’s best receiver. See below for a preview of the Saints’ and Lattimore’s matchup vs the Carolina panthers.
BLUE G-MEN GROUP
The New York Football Giants – A playoff team a year ago, albeit a pretty flat one in the game itself – finished with the second-worst record in the league. Sure, they were devastated by the injury bug above and beyond league-average, but they looked sorry as fuck before that too. That’s how important a coach is. Yes, that same coach, Ben McAdoo, led the team to the playoffs a year ago, but when things fell apart so did he – blaming everyone but himself and guaranteeing nobody will give him the top job again for a while. G-Men have talent (#GangGreenLove to my main man @BigDame9000, Damon Harrison). They need to plug a few holes to be competitive again.
I COULD DRINK A CASE OF KEENUM
Annnnd, back to heartwarming, Hollywood-ready stories: Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater had a horrific injury to last year in during a drill in training camp. So Minnesota saved Philadephia from its colossal error in signing the mediocre former first-overall draft pick Sam Bradford to a monster, fully guaranteed $36M for 2 years, and paid some extra for the pleasure. Bradford was decent for Minnesota (accurate, but often in the sense of “4-yard completion on 3rd and 5”, but early this season he too was injured. Enter Case Keenum.
If you’re not a pretty serious NFL fan, you probably didn’t know at the time who this is. Sure, he started fourteen games in two years for pretty awful Rams teams, and 10 in 2 years before that for some offensively-numbing Houston teams. True, he’s college football’s all-time leader in touchdowns, yards and completions, but it’s no fluke he went undrafted – he did all that at humble Houston University, which while a Division I school plays in a very weak conference with decidedly non-pro-level defenses.
This year? The man who never hit 61% pass completion posted a 67.6% this year. The man who threw 24 TDs to 20 INTs in 26 games before this year, threw 22 scores to only 7 booboos on 14 this year, and led his team to the second best record in the NFC and a first-round bye. If that doesn’t have “Hollywood loves sports” written all over it, I don’t know what does. So who plays him in the movie?
JETUP!
Last but not least, my very own #GangGreen, The New York Jets, who were picked by most experts to be the team that finishes 0-16 this year (Oy, Cleveland, will there be no end to misery at the Dawg Pound?), and instead finished a much less pathetic 5-16, that included some wins and some very close misses against some decent to very good teams (4 of the five wins came against eventual playoff teams – Jaguars, Titans, Bills, Chiefs). Both the offense and the defense overperformed, the offense showing flashes of “could be good to very good with 1-2 more players” and the defense (could be league-crushing with more consistency and a #1 CB). Despite some truly embarrassing calls that cost games (WHO THE FUCK PASSES THERE?**)
QUICK HITS:
It’s become a joke the past 3 years or so: “This is the year the Jaguars are really good”. Well, Bortles is still Bortles, but that D? Scary af.
Raiders came up way short of preseason expectations. Bad coaching? Derek Carr is not all that? Other? Lemme know what you think.
Marvin Lewis was re-signed as Head Coach of Cincinnati. What on earth does that man have on Bengals Owner Mike Brown? This is not on merit, and I can’t even say “a black guy performing like that…” cause Marvin’s black.
Finally, I’m supposed to begrudge this as a Jets fan, but nah – I’m happy for the maniacs of #BillsMafia. That’s an old-school franchise, struggling to survive and stay in a very unfashionable town. Jags should crush them, but if not that’ll be cool too.
Wild Card Previews:
KC vs Tennessee:
It’s 0:51 left in the 3rd and KC, underperforming on tis chances, is leading by 11 as I called (scratch that, by just 4). KC is just a better team, and Alex Smith shut up a lot of mouths in the 1st half, then let them reopen slightly in the 3rd qtr (Update: In a major way throughout the 2nd half, but not as much as his useless coach). I liked seeing all KC ball carriers in the 1st half fight for and win those extra yards. That’s a playoff frame of mind. Also, that hit on Kelce was, best I could see, helmet to helmet. And finally, on that sack be Derrick Johnson? Mariotta fumbled. Ball out before his knee even smells the ground. Instead of KC getting the ball, Tennessee got 3 points that may prove huge here.
L.A. Rams vs Atlanta:
As someone who had Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in fantasy this year, only to see them no-shows on both week 13 (regular season finale in fantasy) and week 14 (first round of playoffs), let me confirm: This ain’t last year’s league-leading Falcons. Rams D is pretty fierce, with Aaron Donald terrorizing quarterbacks, and Atlanta D is vulnerable. That said, experience counts for a lot in the playoffs. Atlanta’s got plenty, Rams players have almost none. Still, Rams in a squeaker (3 or under). Over 47.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars:
Buffalo hadn’t been to the playoffs since the heartbreaker of the “Music City Miracle” in 1999. Now they once again play in the first round against an offensively boring, defensively scary AFC South champion. Unlike last time, I don’t see it being close. Buffalo’s offense is 22nd in points per game, 29th in yards per game. Jaguars D is 2nd in both categories. Unless the Jags yield much more to playoff pressure than the equally inexperienced Bills, their underwhelming offense will have excellent field position throughout, plus I anticipate a defensive score. Jags by 10 or more. Under 38.
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
Potentially the most fun game of the round, rightly (if not intentionally) reserved for the best time slot. We’ve discussed the Kamara/Ingram combo, and the passing game with all-time completion percentage leader Drew Brees is always potent, as proven by the Saints’ offense 2nd place ranking in yards per game and 4th in points. Carolina, on the other hand, is only 19th in yards per game and 12th in scoring.
However, for all the Saints’ strides on Defense, that of Carolina is still much better, one place behind the Saints in points allowed but 10 places better in yards allowed.
So Cam Newton will have to get creative, wreak havoc with his legs, forcing rookie CB sensation Marshon Lattimore (or at least his opposite number) to help with containing the passer, so that Devin Funchess (or his opposite number) will have some hope of getting free downfield.
Prediction: Close, wild, high-scoring game in which the Nawlins faithful force Cam Newton and Co. into just enough mistakes to propel dem Saints into the divisional round. Saints by 5 or less, over 50.
That's it. Better late? I can only hope... If you liked, show some love via comments. Much obliged.
*If they give it to anybody else… Ain’t no damn question. Sorry, Kareem Hunt. 9/10 years you win it.
**Vs. Miami, Week 7, Oct 22. You don't fucking pass there. You run out the clock and go to overtime. You just do. Unless this was stealth tanking, in which case, pending the draft pick we get, um... well played?