NFL Conference Championships analysis and forecast

A’ight, life and all kept me away, but it’s Championship Sunday, doggone it, and we’re gonna address it, at least semi-properly.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

I was inching towards being comfortable in following my green-and-white-bleeding, #GangGreen heart and calling the upset. Then Jags players started talking All. Sorts. Of. Trash, and, well… I’ll pick a wily human to beat a bear in a fight, but not if the human gives up all hope of sneaking up on the beast and instead pisses it off. Cause this is not a stupid kinda bear, I tell you what, and if anyone can devise a defensive scheme to remind everyone why nobody thought Blake Bortles could or should reach a conference finals, it’s the evil hooded one.

Then came news of pretty boy’s cut hand, and some hope tried to reassert itself. Then I reminded myself that this could very well all be psy-ops and even if true: What’s the one thing TB12 doesn’t have that undisputed all-time greats like Michael Jordan have? A flu-game type performance. So not even that gives me much hope.

Still, I do believe it’ll be a lot closer than the handicappers seem to think. I believe Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson are gonna remind pretty boy of Every. Goddamn. Year. Of mileage on his body, and if they manage to knock him outta the game all bets are off, cause Brian Hoyer ain’t no better than Bortles. I don't think Jalen Ramsey is going to be allowed to have much of a game though. Vegas is saying Pats by more’n a TD. I say Pats by under a FG, under 43.

First drive impressions: Here comes Marrone's big test. Not on this offensive drive, but next time NE has the ball. If Brady keeps completing big passes, this will be over soon. (UPDATE: Good for Marrone. Also: I obviously want the Jags to win, but Church should have been ejected for that hit. Not blaming the refs here, but the league needs to make that the standard if it's at all serious about head trauma. That shit looked intentional.

Post-game take: I was damn close. Closer than Vegas, anyway. I would not have called that had you told me no Gronk for the whole 2nd half, tho. Damn you Tom Brady. Damn you Bill Belichick. Marrone, as was to be expected, lost the 2nd half adjustments game. Although he didn't self-destruct, Bortles played a much poorer game in the 2nd. He only made one big throw, and made 2-3 "vintage Bortles" throws. With a D this good he could pull a Dilfer and "lead" a team to a SB, but if the Jags have the chance, they should replace him. This was still his best performance in a game of consequence ever, and I don't believe it gets better than this.

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Beware the hooded one

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

OK, if you're not from Broad Street and points surrounding, how do you root against Minny? I was gonna say "or from the Big Easy", but even Saints Coach Sean Payton, in response to the umpteenth ribbing by the Vikings fans and even the official team accounts, tweeted that he's pulling for the Vikes to win and represent the conference in the big game at home.

Can they do it? On paper, sure. On the paper of the history books, no team in the NFC has blown more favorable conference title game matchups than any team I can think of. They were immense favorites in January 1998 vs Atlanta, and lost a heartbreaker in overtime when kicker Gary Anderson, who hadn't missed a field goal all season, missed one there. Two years later they were likewise HUGE favorites against the New York Giants. This time no overtime was needed as the underdogs dragged the Vikings through the mud to the tune of 41-0. This time the Vikings are only moderate favorites at -3, so perhaps that particular curse will be avoided.

The Eagles' offense is pretty poor without QB Carson Wentz whereas Minnesota's is humming on all cylinders. As both defenses are tough, this equation leads me to predict a Vikings victory - by more than 3. 5 or up, in fact, and a total points of over 46.

Update (7:18 left in the 3rd): So, um, yeah... about the above. 2013 Nick Foles sez hai, I guess. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

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