Hi all. The clock is ticking. Remember when the oil price was high a few years ago. Was it a coincidence that the oil dropped, soon after Iran was able to come back to the market. Remember it was a time of financial crisis of 2008 Lehman Brother collapse and Prime rate mortgage disaster. The world needed as much of a break as possible. They need Iran oil, to dump the price of oil, so the economy can try to recover. A low oil price helps keep all other prices of things down. This also was a chance for the West to weaken Russia and bring to the negotiating table to the West, but Russia made a oil deal with China.
The middle east is delicate balance to the rest of the world. If they left oil price high, all the oil nations and the Arabs could buy up everything and clean up. By allowing Iran back in, they know it would dump huge amounts of oil in to the market and thus drop the price. Iran has decades of sanctions to recover from. Iran being no friend of the Saudis, ensure there would be no colluding initially.
In the interim, it gave some time for the West to try to recover, before the next eventual rise of oil. They know they can't keep oil down forever. When Iran is stronger, they will join Russia to lift the price. It is a risk the West is willing to take. They hope to offset it with renewable energy, more efficient products and economic recovery.
If the economy does not recover well enough or if politics plays before the next big oil price rise, this will cause havoc to the common people, economies of the West especially are in trouble. China has their many oil deals for multiple years and they are allies of Russia, so they'll be in good position. USA will have to rely on their oil fracking business, but I doubt it will be enough.
It doesn't have to be Russia or be Iran. Saudis and their allies can do it too, to drop production. The world economy is standing on the edge with a delicate balance. If I had to pick who would strike first, eventually it be Iran. By Iran allying with Russia in the Syrian war, it can negate the advantage the West had with oversupply of oil. It could be Iran stroke a deal already to control the price of oil in the future and that is why Russia came into the War.
A weak global economy actually kept the oil nations from lifting the price now. If they lift the price, they would be poorer as well. Game of dare, is developing who would be first to force a move, will it be an initial strike, or subtle trap.
Let's look to the stress areas around the world to see where we are at on the clock. USA n Europe financial crisis will become a calamity - private banks are printing untold amounts of money. China may be over-exposed in their investment all over the world. Russia may need more than the low price of oil to survive and have to develop other economic industries. ISIS is the catalyst that brings it all down. They only need to destroy and not build things. To bring it down is much easier than to build it up. All this, has the classic formula for a tragedy of unprecedented proportions. Besides ISIS each of the group has a weakness and a strength, but they fail to work together because they don't trust each other. They shouldn't, the West through it's history shows they can't be trusted - colonialism, 2008 financial crisis and etc. Neither are the other two completely.
So there you have it, 3 way stalemate of weakness. To estimate how long this can keep up, consider ISIS will strike again and eventually it will be more disastrous and will have more casualties. My guess within the next 5 years, another great financial crisis is conceivable or huge social unrest in the west. Between 5-10 years, is when the western over supply of fiat money crisis may happen or oil price bomb may hit. In the next 10 years, an armed race develops to build up AI, all kinds of technology against each other. Eventual destruction, I'll put it at the 20-25 year from now. I don't think we are no more than 30 years from possible extinction. Although, Newton's prediction is 2060 and the Apocalypse of Ezra is 2045. People should start having faith at those last years, because it be so ugly.
**Disclosure This blog is based on my opinions. I am not giving professional advice. Anything written here should be taken as an opinion and is the responsibility of the reader to take due diligence as such. Basically saying I may be wrong, right or neither, just saying its my opinions and my voice.