Top Gun 2 is right now the clear leader for movie winner of 2022, but can it actually hold on with Avatar 2 coming out on December 16th?
1.45 billion dollars was what Top Gun 2 made in theaters.
The highest grossing movie so far this year by far, with the others being.
- Jurassic World Dominion-1 billion dollars.
- Doctor Strange 2-955 million
- Minions: Rise of Gru-924 million
- The Batman-770 million
Avatar, which came out 13 years ago made 2.7 billion dollars globally upon release in 2009, being the highest grossing movie ever at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
The sequel was set to come out in 2015, but was delayed for seven years, due to James Cameron postponing the release to wait for under water motion capture technology to improve.
But 13 years later, can the sequel make enough to claim the title of highest earning movie of the year?
Only way to figure this out is the numbers.
Avatar made 2.7 billion in 2009.
3.7 billion today
750 million of that was made in the United States.
2 billion was international.
74% of total earnings coming from outside the US.
Just for a comparison, Top Gun 2 has made 700 million in the US and a little under 700 million internationally, meaning over 50% of the earnings stayed domestic.
This makes sense, seeing how Top Gun 2 had some very American centric themes and isn’t as easy to dub for other languages, where Avatar found success in being easy to dub, due to animation.
Two problems though.
First one, China.
Avatar made 202 million dollars in China, during the original release there in 2010, which was 7.4% of the total box office.
Which that’s not that impressive on surface, when looking at movies such as Avengers Endgame, which was 22.4% of earnings at 629 million made, but for 2009/2010 standards, it was insane.
658 million dollars was China’s total box office earnings in 2010 for the entire country and Avatar was nearly a third of it.
Avatar also has had several re-releases there, which made over 50 million total, was a popular Blu-Ray and popularly pirated or streamed in China.
China has had some cultural/political issues the last few years, banning almost all Marvel movies and films produced by Disney, which likely means Avatar won’t get let in.
If allowed, Avatar 2 would likely make 500+ million dollars there and easily beat Top Gun 2, but it probably doesn’t happen.
Second issue, 3D.
72% of Avatar’s original revenue came from 3D viewings.
Today, there’s a global re-release of Avatar going on, which has is projected to make 45 million and 93% of tickets sold are for 3D.
3D was big for Avatar, but has been on a downtrend.
Only 7% of tickets sold in 2021 were for 3D.
This is down from the peak, which was 18% of tickets sold, but that has gradually declined overtime.
That peak happened due to Avatar, where before 3D would average 1-3% of tickets sold, but was close to the 20% number post Avatar and now going back down.
This makes a case against Avatar 2 winning, but this might not be a big deal.
Avatar brought in the 3D trend, which was called a dumb gimmick before hand and turned it into every movie doing it.
3D also could be a big advantage over Top Gun 2, due to the price.
$14 is AMC’s national price average on normal tickets.
$18 is the average for 3D tickets.
This means it’d take 77% of the total tickets sold being in 3D for Avatar 2 to match Top Gun 2, which looking at the original release at 72%, that’s possible.
Because of all this, I think Avatar 2 ultimately wins for 2022.
The big reason was the initial release weekend, where Avatar did just okay making 77 million dollars, which was called a modest hit. Some even said it was a let down looking at the budget.
Momentum grew quickly after, international appeal hit and it was the hit of 2009.
Avatar also built itself into one of Disney’s most popular attractions, launching in 2017, after they spent 500 million dollars on it.
Many analysis think Top Gun 2 is the winner and Avatar 2 won’t excite, but I’m feeling a 2+ billion dollar movie here.