FedEx (FDX): A Minor Recession Approaching?

SUMMARY

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The performance of FedEx (FDX) stock price is often seen as a harbinger of what's to come. Given how bullish FDX had been since the 2008 Financial crisis which coincided with blue wave 2; price has surged to all time new highs. This has led to blue wave 3 which is likely complete and if not, it probably has one more wave up before declining into blue wave 4 correction. It's during this correction when news of slowing economy might arrive to justify the forecast.

The subwaves of blue wave 3 seem quite complete (white) and the same for blue wave 1. IF the blue wave 4 correction onsets, then the ABC pathway is likely. It would not be a crash scenario; but rather a healthy blue wave 4 retracement which will prepare the table for blue wave 5. But still, this blue wave 4 will also likely correlate with lowered shipments by FDX; hence, reflective of a slowing economy.

The MACD has declined from a very overbought state and should lead to red wave A completion. One other corrective pattern could be an ABCDE triangle as well. Regardless, once blue wave 4 completes, all time new highs will be ushered in by blue wave 5.

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