Lately, I've often found myself fantasizing about us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial lifeforms, if only just to see how Trump would try to deal with them. Yet is it really so far fetched? Considering the age and size of the universe, (old and big respectively,) is the probability of facing an alien invasion really much lower than electing a leader whose first response would likely be to build a giant floating wall to keep them out? Or perhaps we are truly alone in the universe, well at least to whatever extent sharing a planet with a trillion other species could qualify as 'alone'.
I bet I could teach my dog to catch these
The Age and Size of the Universe
The best thing about the universe is that although it's expanding at an exponential rate, it never gets offended if you inquire about its size or age. The universe is approximately 100 billion light years from end to end according to my measuring tape and about 14 billion years old.
As you know, I lend my Hubble telescope to scientists when I'm not using it to keep an eye on what my ex is up to, and last year they were able to use it to discover that the observable universe contained at least 2 billion galaxies: roughly 10 times more than originally thought. Each galaxy has around a trillion stars, and a good proportion of them have a planet that is similar to ours. So by my calculations there are 80,000 trillion habitable planets in the universe exactly!
Hmm, I can see my house from here
Fermi Paradox
Even assuming that the only planets out there capable of sustaining lifeforms need to be very similar to ours, that's still a lot of planets with the right qualifications. So the natural question is why are we so isolated from any other signs of intelligent life that we're forced to view some ice deposits on mars with the same level of excitement as being part of an intergalactic war against the Zerg? With at least a billion habitable planets within our Milky Way galaxy alone, and 14 billion years of opportunities for any one of them to evolve intelligent beings capable of interstellar travel, you'd think we'll all be worried about paying E.T.'s phone bill?
This is known as Fermi's Paradox: on the one hand the independent opportunities of harboring life in the cosmos seems staggering and galactic scale civilizations over the course of 14 billion years is almost guaranteed. On the other hand, we have failed to make first contact with any other intelligent species originating from outside our own planet. Much like how there's 4 billion human females on the planet, the probability of not a single one of them being willing to go out with me seems so low, yet its also palpably staring at me in the face. What could be some possible explanation to this apparent paradox?
Errr...we're going to need a bigger wall to keep this one out
Theories
One possible explanation is that while there are an abundance of planets that provide habitable environments, almost none of them have the conditions required for life to begin. The process of how the first life originated on the planet from inanimate physical objects is not fully understood. It's not like a rock just started mating with another rock out of the blue and gave birth to the first turtle. The process for life to begin could be infinitesimally unlikely, to the point where even though there are trillions of habitable planets, the probability that almost none of them contain life is still every high. Therefore, maybe no one is out there which is why in space no one can hear you scream.
I is the first lifeform ever
Another theory is that while its not too difficult for life to begin, every intelligent civilization ultimately and inevitably ends up destroying itself by, say, electing an unintelligent leader who starts a nuclear war that destroys their entire planet. Or perhaps some doomsday piece of knowledge lies ahead of us, its mere discovery will ensure our total annihilation irrespective of how benign our intentions are. If that's the case then we might as well all just be assholes, as we're screwed anyway. I'm way ahead of most of you in that respect.
Arthur C. Clarke remarked “Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.” I don't know why he thought sitting around playing Mario Kart in the lounge room is as terrifying as having our planet vaporized by a passing Death Star, but I do happen to agree with the first, and less profound, half of that quote.
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