The future is always unprecedented
Of course, it is necessary to look at past performance as it informs the future, but the reason we have to do that is, it is the only information we have to predict what is to come. We just don't and can't know, what we don't know and the future, hasn't happened yet.
Sure, this is philosophical "garbage" but it is is something that I consider when I plan for mine and my family's future, because as prepared as I try to be, there are so many variables for which I just can't prepare. Still, having some "preparation" is better than none, even if everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.
This week, I am going through a bit of a demotivated stage, which I think is mostly brought on by my allergy medication kicking in and making me extremely tired. Sleep doesn't help in this case either, but I am trying to catch a few extra minutes here and there. The other factor is that over the last few days, I have been more surrounded with social commentary from around the world through my own network and, it is depressing.
One of the things that caught my attention was a statement made by someone commenting on a plus-size model not being attractive and them being called out for "body shaming". Sure, maybe it is a "if you don't have something nice to say, say nothing" social situations, but we live in a world that encourages opinions and incentivizes drama, so what is to be expected as a result? He is incentivized to say what he did to create a reaction from an audience that is primed to take a polarized stance on what is said. Under these conditions, the future is predictable and this is proven by him saying it and the subsequent reaction.
More clicks.
And then, while I know that "fair" doesn't exist, there are so many double-standards involved in the media, as while this person is raked over hot coals for sharing his preference, the same people who are against what he said, are quite happy to support a best and worst dressed list from some awards night, complain about models being too fit, or happy to make sweeping statements about the way men treat women, or how there is no such thing as male and female, but in the next breath talk about the patriarchy - which is it?
The future I predict is one that is going to be fragmented across information lines, where there is very little integrity in what anyone says, as it is all belief based. It is like a return to the dark ages, where people believe sacrificing a virgin will appease the gods and they will provide a good crop for the season. They think that cancelling someone they disagree with is a healthy way to deal with social injustice. Reality doesn't matter, as long as there is the feeling of righteousness in the moment.
I say in the moment, because opinion and preference is always changing, even in the most steadfast and stubborn among us. It has to, because we change, our body changes, our mind changes and all of our experiences change us too. Being "committed" to one position, doesn't mean that the individual is committed to all the positions they hold. You can be a committed pacifist and still change your mind about liking red wine, or a steak well-done or bloody.
This seems obvious, but of course, people don't apply their evaluation evenly across all factors, believing that their judgements are correct, no matter how many times they have been proven wrong. And then, they can always claim "I'm doing the best I can with what I have" because it is true, no matter if someone else with the same resources is doing far better.
Predictability. That is what we seem to want, because it creates certainty, stability and comfort, even if the conditions are harmful to us. Better the devil you know. So, instead of actually encouraging diversity, the people who talk about it promote homogeneity through the way they behave around anything that doesn't align with their views, preferences and belief system.
Everyone is equal, except for those who disagree with my version of what is right.
It is tiring to try and keep up with it, which is why for so long, I haven't spent much time consuming the news, because there is nothing in there that helps me improve my life. If it doesn't help me improve myself or what I can improve for others, why spend so much time consuming it?
But, there is the perception of value because that is what everyone spends their time talking about, isn't it? The same incentives that drive the drama target statements to be made, also drives the consumers of the content as it gives them "topic hooks" to hang their own opinions on. This means that rather than having to think for themselves or create anything of value, they can be part of the discussion using the opinions inherited from others and feel like they are doing something valuable with their lives. This is another incentive-driven behavior that encourages non-creators to create something - even though that something is just an opinion.
Again, all of this is designed in a way that looks to maximize clicks and improve content targeting services to improve value propositions to increase advertising revenues. Not one of these large-scale social movements is about improving society, all of them are about improving the bottom line of what is valued. On the platform and business side it is shareholder wealth. On the consumer side it is that what they think matters.
A symbiotic relationship is formed.
It is a trade, isn't it? a business relationship that has predictable supply and demand features and the same driving forces that predicts the future. What happens when the demand is coming from a captured audience and the supply is a monopoly? That is what the filters are doing and, the choices are being narrowed even faster, because the demand is killing any supply that doesn't fit their own preferences.
The streets of information are getting narrower and the buildings that line them are fading in color and the only difference between them is that they are facing off from opposing sides of the road.
The future has never been seen before, but it is predictable.
Everything is unprecedented, until it happens.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]