Good day Hiveians!
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The market has spoken and we have to adapt
Last month I remarked that Hive's path was clear. I saw price falling to at least the macro support which was/is at 30 cents. Then just a day before the bigger crash in the alt markets I made a post in which I outlined a scenario for Hive going to the bottom of the 0.236 fib ratio at around 22 cents. This is now the new target.
It is also worth mentioning that back in January I outlined 3 scenarios for Hive in 2023. With the macro support being broken (we will have to wait and see if there is not a fast rebound, but I doubt it) we are now on the path to the most bearish one I outlined back then. However, I think the target of around 15 cents is too low. My main argument for that comes from the 0.236 fib ration that I showed in the last post. This indicator has been very successful for predicting Hive's bottoms. Using only the candles as top and bottom we get a low of around 22 cents.
But there is one more important detail that I have discovered. There is a very clear and distinctive pattern throughout the chart. When we see and understand it, it makes sense that we should make a lower low and breach the former support at 25 cents. The pattern in the chart looks like this:
So let's look at the chart again:
There are fractals within fractals here so depending on which scale you are looking you can see different waves. But importantly: they all share the same basic wave shape. If this idea is correct, then we have to assume that the correction after "C" is going to be larger than in "B". In the smaller shapes you can see that the drop after "B" was always a very large one. But since the fib ratio is suggesting 22 cents I think it would be fulfilled at this price level.
If this assumption is correct, we have to also assume that the main price correction would then be completed! After reaching a 22 cents low price would finally transition into the impulse wave phase of the shape. This has always been marked by a very fast increase in price and if this stays true we could see price back at above 30-40 cents in some months.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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