Tesla is looking to really ramp up production. The target is to produce, globally, what BMW does. That company was able to sell 2.5 million vehicles in 2021, the last full year of numbers.
Is Tesla ready to jump into that realm and ramp its production to levels that will make it a serious car manufacturer?
According to what the company is forecasting, it could be possible.
This is getting the analysts and other Tesla watchers scurrying. They are all trying to surmise what the company will do.
At the core of this is the fact that Berlin and Austin are going to be scaling. These plants are going to have to contribute big numbers of the company wants to reach its goals.
Tesla's Internal Forecast
This chart is very revealing. We see how the company is expecting things to expand over the next 12 months. While we are awaiting the Q3 numbers (due out next week), we can see the company is expecting to move far beyond them.
Obviously, this is only a year out, not including the 4th quarter of next year. It is important to note that is usually the best quarter in the automobile industry.
Nevertheless, we see an expectation of around 500K for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. This means the company will do roughly 1.4 million this year.
The total in the first 3 quarters of 2023 will be roughly 1.6 million. That means another 600K quarter has it surpassing 2.1 million vehicles, actually coming in closer to 2.2 million.
In 2021, the company was able to deliver 930K vehicles. A rise of this magnitude would really help to boost profits.
Keep in mind, the right had side of the chart is Tesla's own internal forecasts. While it can vary, this is what the company, itself, believes will occur.
Playing With The Big Boys
Here is the revenues generated in 2021 by the top automakers.
We can see that Tesla is way down on the list. It came in at #13. But, keep in mind, these are 2021 revenue numbers. Where does the company stand now and where will it be a year from this point in time.
If we use the simply ratio of cars sales to revenues, we see that Tesla, if they reach the 2.1 million level, will increase their 2021 delivers by 2.25. If we apply the same ratio to the revenues, we see they are at $106.58 billion. We can see this is right in line with BMW.
The major question is whether the internal forecast is designed to be a bit conservative, aggressive, or just right. Obviously only time will tell.
What is interesting is that, if it achieves these numbers, the revenues will be right on the heels of General Motors.
Who would have thought?
If the company keeps to its goal of 50% growth per year, it will be in the top 3 by the middle of the decade. This is something that few foresaw back in 2018 or 2019.
It is looking more like a reality.
The next year will be very important in this area. If Tesla can meet their own forecasts, it will then be a major player in the automobile sector, not just the EV.
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