A friend was joking how Hive is struggling to reach 20 cents today, and I was stating about how the real value of it should be around five dollars. However, my "reasoning" behind the number is because it would make my life a hell of lot easier if it was up at around that level. Having said that though, I do think that Hive is undervalued, because I still believe that it is heavily underutilized.
Time will tell if it will ever get the traction it deserves.
I am guessing a lot of us live in hope and another friend in the chat said that if Hive did reach five, he would fly to Finland just to take me out to dinner. That'd be a nice surprise. It is rare that anyone offers to pay for my dinner. I wonder if I could squeeze for a movie and dancing as well?
Yet, I am guessing that I am not the only one that would be pretty happy with a 5 dollar Hive token, but it is also hard to imagine what it might look like here at that value. It is easy to calculate the values of what is currently held, or even what a post might be worth given the current voting, but that is not actually what would happen if price of Hive went up significantly, as voting habits would change.
A lot would change.
If this past is anything to go by, there would be a huge amount of social volatility, as a million accounts get created, plagiarists and shitposters run rampant, selfvoters, scam and another million alts hit the post button. Arguments will break out about who and what is earning what and how much, and data divers will be unearthing all kinds of dirt, or attempting to.
Fun times?
For sure.
The place would be alive. Those that have been grinding away for years and stacking their tokens, would get to feel what it means to be an owner on Hive with value. Even those with a lot of value now might not realize how different it would be if it is 25x up from here, and what kinds of feelings they might have, or how they might behave.
One of the things that we often fail to underestimate in ourselves, is how quickly we can get accustomed to conditions. And while we often talk about how entitlement can settle in in the good times, we can also get used to the shitty times also. And as such, we can start to feel like they will never end. When they do, it can seem like it happens very fast, and our habits no longer no what to do with the shifting conditions and tend to overreact.
Or freeze.
Then of course, there are the reactions of the people who "missed out" by choice. Those who threw a tantrum and left, or didn't have the staying power to grind for pennies. The amount of bitterness can get quite extreme from some people. They feel cheated by those who were here, even though this is a completely opt in platform. Another thing that people forget is that no one is forced to be here. Good times, or bad. Though, as you can imagine, no one wants to leave in the good times when they think they can benefit.
What would also be interesting to observe at a 5 price, is all the people who sold for 50c, 1 or 2 and then watched it go up further, and further. Anyone who has been around a while in crypto has had this happen on a token multiple times, but the difference on Hive is that there is a community making the loss of potential visible daily, in multiple ways. That'd feel even worse - even if making a bundle on another token. The reason is that even when up on something else, we still feel the "loss" of the alternatives.
It feels like it has been a very, very long time since I have felt that sense of wealth that comes with a high value vote, or that bottom line in the wallet. I am looking forward to it though and, I am looking forward to those who haven't experienced it before, but have been consistently growing the last three or four years, getting that feeling also.
What I have observed over and over is that many people aren't very good at predicting how they will behave under different conditions that are well outside of their norm, even though they confidently state otherwise. But when things change, we are all quick to throw away what we knew, onboard the new normal.
Everything we know, goes out the window.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]