Since it is Friday, let's dream a little....
Or, will it be a nightmare?
Over the last few weeks various events and comments have returned a thought to my mind, as people put their momentary needs well above their future momentary needs. Obviously, we have to make sure our needs are met in the present, but not considering what we may face in the future, virtually guarantees that we are going to struggle, once we get there.
It is no secret that I am pretty bullish on the future of Hive and have been for years now. Yet, I still can remain objective enough that there are no guarantees in what that future holds. Considering and planning for the future are always a speculative tasks, meaning that with the tools and insight we have available to us at the time, we are predicting what could happen, whether we are right or wrong.
Investing of course is backing our prediction and putting resources behind our conclusions with the aim to grow those resources in some way. It is easy to visualize the monetary growth of an investment, but the "capital" can also be things like, time, energy, attention, effort, or skillset. And the ROI might not come in the same form as the capital investment.
For instance, on Hive we are able to invest our time and skills for HIVE. We can write and comment and attract votes that provide us with tokens that we can then use in various ways to attract more tokens, including fiat tokens.
Never forget: Money as we know it, is just another token.
While the investment process is simple, there are a lot of considerations and negotiations that need to take place. And we need to ask ourselves various questions, like whether we are willing to invest into that future, or not. Or if we are willing to create to satisfy an audience, or not.
All of this investment takes time and has an opportunity cost, so we have to decide if it is for us, which means evaluating if we believe that the possible ROI is worth our resources. For many, it might not be, as for instance, they might value their current time more highly than their future time. And it is true, because we don't know what will happen tomorrow, for we might be hit by the proverbial bus and everything we were planning, was for nought.
How many people do you know who have been hit by a bus?
So, part of the prediction is working out the likelihood of some event happening over another event. For instance, the chance of being hit (unintentionally) by a bus tomorrow. Looking into the future, we also have to consider the probabilities. For example, the chances of needing money to buy food, clothing, paying for accommodation and do something that we might want to do for others, or to entertainment ourselves.
What do you predict as your future needs?
This is not just money and things, but it is also free time and relationships. But, if we aren't considering the future resources we need in order to have these things, when we get there, we are unlikely to have them available. And then, what do we predict our feelings to be, when we are potentially unsatisfied with where we are in life?
For instance, there are people who have been on Hive for many years now and I wonder how they would feel if the token price was to suddenly jump. The future is uncertain, but this uncertainty doesn't always mean that terrible things happen. What if for instance, there was some breakthrough or for some weird reason, a massive demand for Hive started and the token shifted to 10 dollars each?
Note: I am not predicting this in the short term.
How would you feel?
- Would you consider the time and energy you have put in well spent?
- Would you be disappointed at what you have accomplished?
For me, future feelings are interesting things to consider, because making the prediction will help me decide what I am going to be spending my time and energy on right now. Yes, it would be fantastic for me if HIVE went to $10, but I feel good about what I am doing to earn it at 27 cents also. I feel good investing into it, even though I know that there is loss potential. I feel good that I can spend my time writing about things that are important to me, talking with people whom with I enjoy talking, and be part of a community and tech that is a little different, that is on the cusp of something better.
The current moment feels good.
Does yours?
But, there is always an opportunity cost with every resource allocation, so it could be that I might feel better doing something else instead. But, doing one of those other things might come at the expense of a future position.
There is always a tradeoff.
And, this is what happens constantly in the moment. We are continually trading all of the options we have, for the one we choose to do. And, because we choose to do it, we assume that it is what has the most value to us, but we don't consider what else we could have done with the same time, or if doing something else in the moment, would bring a greater level of enjoyment, contentment, or satisfaction.
What has come up in the last weeks is how many people seem to think that planning for the future is a compromise on experience now. But, it isn't like that at all. If anything, it is an enhancement of the current moment, because it gives purpose to what is being done, making it more meaningful and therefore, valuable. It might be sentimental, but that is all experience really is.
For me, I believe that the ability to consider our future position is one of the superpowers of being human and is part of what allows us to grow as a species and as individuals. It makes us predictive of the environment, not reactive to it. And since the probability is that we will see tomorrow, we should probably think about what we might want to do with our lives and what that takes, so we don't feel like intentionally stepping in front of a bus.
$10 dollar HIVE.
What a nightmare.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]