Hi 👋 guys, just yesterday we were discussing the heavyweight champs of the financial world - HSBC Hong Kong and BlackRock - dipping their toes into the Bitcoin ETF pool. While HSBC has gotten the Chinese approval to offer BTC ETFs, the SEC is still yet to blow the whistle to signal an approval on BlackRock's BTC ETF filing.

The Potential Consequences of a 'No'

Classic SEC, huh? Keeping us on the edge of our seats wondering what's next. It's like they've got the decision in their back pocket but they're just dragging it out. On one hand it looks like a manipulative plot, on the other hand, something more interesting is at play.

But here's a twist. What if the SEC throws a curveball and says 'no'? Think about it. They could have more to gain by saying No and fostering the CBDC agenda than by saying yes. If they do, you can bet your last Satoshi that Bitcoin'sprice is going to take a hit.

We might even see Bitcoin take a deep dive to $18k. And when that happens, you can expect the FUDsters to come out of the woodwork, spreading doom and gloom like it's their day job.

The Short-Term Impact

In the aftermath, the SEC will be strutting around like the rooster in the henhouse. Their 'for the people' narrative will seem validated, and Gary Gensler will be basking in the applause, taking a victory lap. But like all good things, this too would only last for a little while.

The Long-Term Consequences

Because guess what? The longer BlackRock is kept out of the BTC ETF table, the more time other players like HSBC Hong Kong get to dominate the crypto ETF arena.

And that doesn’t sound nice, something's got to give, right? If BlackRock, a titan of the industry, is sidelined. I can only imagine.

The implications of such a shift could send ripples throughout the crypto ecosystem. It could redefine power structures, influence the direction of crypto regulations and even dictate the pace at which institutional money flows into the sector.

Current market status

At the time of writing this post, Bitcoin is pushing higher $30k levels, in my last post I mentioned how the market was yet to price in the HSBC Hong Kong BTC ETF approval news and how people are underestimating the impact it can create.

Right now Bitcoin looks ready to burst through the roof of its previous high at $31k, and it’s dominance is all over the place.

BTC dominance is currently at 51.8% and moving, and as such, alts are bleeding through it, but that’s the thing about this type of scenario, the result of Bitcoin dominance is alt season, and it can take off at anytime when there’s a quick reversal in BTC price.

Don’t forget that there’s the scenario where the SEC rejects the ETF offering and the markets dumps, this is not the one to look out for, the one to look out for will be the one that happens if the SEC continues to hold on to the decision and the market naturally retraces on its own.

I wonder how long the SEC will stall for though especially as time is of the essence for tradfi corporations like BlackRock, plus, there’s only so much Bitcoin to go round. Hhmmmn. Ticktock ⏳