We are currently deep in a crypto bear market. Thats something everyone is aware of at this point.
How low we will go is anyone's guess.
CT is the most silent it has been in years, spam is at an all time low, scams have taken a back seat to major players crumbling under lawsuits and general ridicule.
What we have seen earlier this year is that when bad news starts rolling, it rarely stops at 1.
From massive liquidations, LUNA, Celsius, NFT market capitulation...
Tie in the status of the macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical instability, post Covid, energy crisis and overall uncertainty in the markets it is fairly clear that we are in the worst point in time for crypto.
- Global inflation right now is at almost 9%.
- Europe Natural gas prices peaked this year at 350 E/MWH (7x increase since same time last year)
- Russia invasion of Ukraine affected supply chains in many industries. Transport, metallurgy, energy, etc. Refuge crisis.
- We are still feeling the effects of ZERO-COVID policies.
- Taiwan instability.
- Chinese real-estate crisis.
- Social instability across the board.
There are probably more things I could have mentioned but I think the point is made.
We are struggling and expecting the crypto market to recover in this macro-environment is a bit naïve.
So when?
Future is hard to predict and anyone claiming to know the future probably wants to sell you something.
A better question is "what?"
What is it that needs to happen for us to exit this downtrend?
An avalanche of good news...
By many estimates, inflation hit its peak this year and should drop to 5% in 2023. Gas prices already dropped from 350 E/MWH to 150 E/MWH, silencing many of the doomsday preachers. It is expected to drop even lower with the stabilization or the energy market, infrastructure development and weaning off Russian gas, opening new markets.
The finalization of the Russian war of conquest I expect to have a effect on positive sentiment overall.
If Russia loses and the world survives, we should expect seeing China returning to being more docile in their relationship with Taiwan as well.
All of this should reinvigorate the global market.
I really hope that we will see at least some of these events tied into the anticipation for the halving in March 2024. Once people are no longer entirely focused on their day to day survival, how they will feed themselves and their family, how they will pay bills watching fearmongering from all sides, they can afford putting attention into things less urgent.
If the start of the bear market met us with an avalanche of bad news, the start of the next bull market will have to be met by the opposite.