When you are stable financially and in your life you can go through the crypto cycle quite detached and you are not under major pressures to not make mistakes, which are unavoidable. You may even welcome a period like this one, when the bull run teases us but bulls don't really control things. You may enjoy the extra time to accumulate more of the assets you want at discount.
But if you are on the edge, you don't take well a teasing market, even if you are not a trader, but only work or operate in this space and made some plans where the market cycle has some influence. For a business or a prospective business, it doesn't matter only the length of their runway, but also the spending power of their potential customers and their sentiment.
Perhaps the sentiment was too bullish regarding the start of Q4 and we had this cold shower to cool off a bit.
I still believe we will have a pretty great Q4, but we have to see if this pullback is harsher or not to judge how October will end up.
For now we have this:
Bitcoin either temporarily paused at its SMA 50 and it will dip lower, or SMA 50 will act as support and the price will bounce back from here. Personally, I don't think this is strong enough to bounce off of it, but I hope so because otherwise we will have a pretty hard first half of October, as a continuation of a long period of uncertainty.
If it breaks through, the first support is at 57-58k. If it goes lower, it will take back all what it gained from the lows in September, so unless we have some major escalations in the Middle East, I hope we won't see that.
If it bounces off of the moving average, then chances are we might see a V-shape recovery and pushing higher from there on the mid term if/when we get a golden cross, which coincidentally, might be around mid-October too.
It looks like whatever path this will go (maybe except if we drop to 53k), the middle of the month might be a key. I would have hoped it to be sooner, but this initial dip shows me the market isn't in a hurry yet.