We are almost at the end of "Rektember" and there was no rekting, other than a little scare for some investors on 9/11 (hmm, I just realized that that dreadful day is written 911, same as the emergency number in the US; anyone thinks it was a coincidence?).
According to crypto folklore, next month would be "Uptober", when crypto markets would start recovering after the losses in September.
But now that we will likely have had a boring September with a sideways market price evolution, in general, what does that say about the reliability of the crypto folklore regarding "Uptober"? Are we going to really see a rally in October?
Would you be surprised if the SEC might have another say in this? Their rulings for the delayed spot bitcoin ETF applications are coming around mid October. By the number of losses or warnings in a row they registered in different lawsuits, I don't see them taking a hard negative stance on these application, and opening themselves to another round of criticism and attacks from more powerful adversaries. The "worst" they can do is delay again, in my opinion.
At the previous delays, I believed there is a chance at least one of the applications will be approved in October. I am more reserved now, as my feeling is nobody with any say in this wants to start anything major until after the bitcoin's halving.
Maybe a small or short bump up at the end of 2023, but short or insignificant enough not to create any major waves and changes in the sentiment in the market.
I also expect shortly before the bitcoin's halving, to have some excitement built up for the event, but that would be a bad time to buy unless someone wants to make a short time move, since there is often a selloff after halvings.
Personally, I hoped to have a significant uptrend toward the end of the year. But I started to be more reserved about that possibility. I may be wrong, but it is possible bulls will not have major reasons to be excited until some time after the halving, in which case the bull market might extend until 2025.
How Do You See the End of Year in Crypto Markets?