BTC at 20K? Recessions create more selling.


CLICK IMAGE TO EXPAND

Sorry about my highlighted line, it's not straight because I used the Snipping Tool.

There is no other good support between here and $20K. $20K Bitcoin does look attractive to buy though. But be careful, it may go to $13K. Recessions in the general economy follow equity market corrections…most of the time. Recessions cause more sell-offs in equity markets beyond the original redistribution of value from risky assets to safer assets, like cash or bonds.

Less Wealth and Recessions

  • When credit and money become more expensive, there is less of it available to push financial asset prices higher.

  • And when assets don’t go higher, there is a fear that the top is put in, and people recognize that the value of those assets will not give them the returns that they once had, so they lock in their gains and begin selling those financial assets for money.

  • That selling pushes financial assets prices lower.

  • Lower prices translates into less wealth (in currency terms).

  • The less wealthy someone feels, they buy less, including financial assets, creating a feedback loop…less wealth, less buying, lower prices, less wealth, less buying, lower prices.

  • People buy less, companies make less money, companies have to cut costs, unemployment rises.

  • If a percentage of people who lost their job, didn't have an emergency fund, or couldn't afford their debt service payments, they begin selling financial and real assets to cover those payments and debt. That puts even more pressure on financial markets to go down.

In Conclusion:

People are feeling less wealthy now, but they haven't slowed down they're buying much yet, except for big items, like cars and houses.

We haven't hit the recession phase yet, and recession phases usually cause people to sell more.

The only way that this stops… and we begin to see a recovery… is when money and credit become less expensive…and there's more of it available. But I don't expect that for another 12 months.

Stay frosty people

H2
H3
H4
3 columns
2 columns
1 column
Join the conversation now