Whatcha doin there Hive?
Last night I was a bit shocked to see that the dollar value of my Hive Keychain wallet looked a bit high. I went to check the price and saw that Hive has essentially pumped 20% out of nowhere. Of course we've since returned back to 18 cents in short order, as is often the case, but at the same time this could be the signal we've been waiting for. It's possible this is the bottom and that pump/dump is giving us a preview of the price action to come.
HIVE/BTC
Of course looking at Hive priced in terms of Bitcoin is nothing short of depressing. We can clearly see that a 20% pump barely even registers on the chart and could more or less be interpreted as a rounding error. At the same time Hive has done a full 4-year cycle round trip back to 300 sats. Are we grinding at support and about to pump for the next year, or will there be one final capitulation event? I give it a 60/40 chance of one last dip for max pain, but you never know. Either way buying Hive at 18 cents is a steal for those who still have conviction. Personally I'll probably wait to the end of the year to make a big buy just in case we pull the exact same shenanigans as we did 4 years ago. I'm tired of trying to pretend like "this time is different". It wasn't. It's not.
To be clear the rock-bottom low for Hive would be something like 13 cents or 150-200 sats, whichever comes first. The sats target gets hit if BTC spikes and Hive trades flat, and the 13 cents will hit if we get some kind of insane selloff event like we saw in March 2020 COVID.
All that being said Hive is still a pretty exciting network to be a part of, especially now that I run and control my own node and am getting more involved in the technical aspect of things. Hive still very much provides a service that no other cryptocurrency has been able to accomplish: paying people for their work. Every other shitcoin that has attempted to do this has collapsed to zero in short order. Just recently the Friend.Tech team rugpulled their userbase. What a shocking surprise; we all tried to warn them but they would not listen.
Speaking of outlasting the competition...
HBD is pretty much the best algo stable coin out there. Who would have thought? All the other big ones exploded in a glorious cloud of vapor. Now all we have to do is keep pushing forward and surviving one day at a time. It's a tough job, but we're doing it. All of the "competition" has failed. Miserably.
People on Hive need to have more respect for Bitcoin.
I get the feeling that I'm going to be repeating this until the end of time. Bitcoin is a very important asset to Hive. If more people on Hive had access to a significant abundance of BTC they'd be buying right now instead of being worried that their entire portfolio was going up in smoke.
I think this situation will correct itself a lot when VSC gives users the ability to pool wrapped BTC with HBD on the second layer. An BTC/HBD pair will be potentially one of the safest places to be during any kind of 2026 bear market (assuming negligible systemic threat or counterparty risk). I'm very much looking forward to finding a solid LP for BTC paired to a stable coin. The fact that it increases the demand for our debt can only help Hive going forward.
Partial supermoon eclipse?
So here we are at September 18th. I still haven't cashed out my $10k life insurance policy. Then again I don't really need to, yet. I have more than enough money in my bank account to pay one if not two month's rent, and I can pay all my other bills on credit cards if I need to. I'm avoiding selling crypto like the plague right now, and that $10k was never meant to buy any dips but rather just stop me from selling crypto to pay bills. I'd like to keep the slush between my bank account and Coinbase to a minimum. Trying to transition into a clean separation and eventually get off the grid as much as possible. We'll see.
So not only did we get this supermoon eclipse thingamajig... which is always fun to speculate on astrology... but also the FED is supposed to pivot today. @taskmaster4450 posted a video saying 25 basis points is locked in... but judging by Twitter and Google they haven't actually made the official announcement yet.
25 points 50 points 0 points it doesn't really matter. Bitcoin has proven that it beats to the rhythm of its own 4-year halving event cycle. We've been consolidating near ATH for 6 months. It's the end of Q3. September is often a local low. 2025 is the bull market year. It's time to get serious.
Also I'm seeing that Bitcoin dominance is something like 58% which is a record high on long timeframes. It hasn't been this high in something like 5 years, which is obviously longer than a 4-year cycle. This is significant. It also makes perfect sense because Bitcoin needs to get into ATH territory before displacement can happen.
Liquidity Displacement.
Displacement is a scientific principal in which we can easily measure the volume of a solid but jagged object (like a rock) by putting the rock into water and measuring how much the water line went up. Liquid moves around the solid object and shows exactly how much water was displaced by the object.
Applying this concept to Bitcoin a lot of maximalists falsely believe that dominance is going to just keep going up forever because all this institutional money is trapped in retirement funds at Blackrock and Fidelity. This is unequivocally false because of liquidity displacement. While the "rocks" (in this case retirement account money) is locked in at the bottom of the liquidity pool, the value of BTC is still going to go up.
Once BTC is well above ATH again (probably above $100k) alts will rampage once again due to all this displacement. People like me who have a chunk of BTC will start moving it into the alts. Because alts have so much smaller liquidity pools than BTC it doesn't take a lot of Bitcoin to make a huge splash and create massive FOMO that creates the momentum needed for a record-breaking alt market in 2025.
Blink and you might miss it.
The market at large is not ready for this to happen, and it never is, which is why it works out this way every 4 year cycle. We're all demoralized, now more than ever with BTC dominance at local highs and still climbing. By the time 2025 madness rolls around it's going to flip the other way and we'll all go back to factory degenerate settings. These things happen. Try not to get wrecked and hold on to some of the money you make next year. I get the feeling that 2026 crypto winter is going to be a devastating one for most of the newbies.
My last TA speculation post was 9 days ago.
This was my prediction: that we might be in somewhat of a hidden inverted head and shoulders pattern that would take us back to $72k resistance in a matter of weeks. So how is this prediction fairing thus far?
wow... pretty damn good
The hyper-bullish scenario is still fully in place.
We need a dip very soon to even come close to invalidating it.
That dip needs to come like... today or tomorrow in the wake of a sell the news event.
As always no matter what the price does, up or down, September 25th is almost always a safe time to buy during any given year... let's see if I have a September chart saved...
Ah damn this one is super old but still this is how it always is every September. It's always possible to get something like a 30%-50% flash-crash... but if that happens it pivots into the most rampaging bull market of all time. For a more recent reference look at the chart: if you bought in September 2022 you got a price of $20k and in 2023 you got a price of $28k; aka not the bottoms but incredible times to buy nonetheless.
Buy spot and leverage long if we get a big dip.
You can thank me later.