The more things change the more they stay the same.
The more I look at Bitcoin in the cycle and the sentiment that surrounds it the more I'm convinced that the current cycle we are in will end up being one of the most textbook and obvious in history. Did we get thrown a curve-ball with an all time high pump coming in before the halving event? Kind of... but then again even that wasn't really unexpected and I posted about a blow-off top coming off the heels of the Blackrock ETF.
I made quite a decent amount of money trading that run up. I went long at $28k... deleveraged at something like $43k... and then sold at $72k after correctly calling the $74k peak. My only regret is not betting more, but that's always the only regret when making a correct call.
And now we find ourselves in a situation where everyone is freaking out and losing their minds because the market is crab-walking 20% under those all time highs. It's all a constant reminder that this space is just riddled with degenerate children with zero discipline. Or, if that is too harsh and insulting: users that find themselves wildly irresponsibly long who gamble their entire net worth on the most volatile asset that's ever existed. Semantics. Either way it all reeks of desperation and scarcity mindset.
https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1829916428772016452
Confirmation Bias?
This rektcapital fella seems to follow the exact same analysis I often like to point to. What's he saying right now? Basically that we need to do what I've been saying needs to be done for months now... just wait out Q3 and try not to lose our minds. August ends today. Only one more month to go.
Interestingly enough a lot of random stuff is all happening on September 18th. The FED is pivoting. It's a full moon. Looks like Trump is going to get sentencing for this guilty verdict. There were also a couple of other random things happening that are totally unrelated to anything. More confirmation bias perhaps.
My personal analysis...
Anything between $72k and $58k is extremely boring and not worth commenting on. All the moving averages find themselves in a tight band within this crab market. In addition there are no more death-crosses left. Golden-crosses only, which are considered pretty bullish in a situation like this. It's going to take a month or two before the MA(100) can flip the MA(200), but I believe we'll see fireworks when it does. As always, the 25-day flipping the 100-day is always huge because those are the default lines on exchanges like Binance. We might get that one in 2 weeks or two months but it's coming.
Is ice thinning at $58k?
We're either in the process of building up pressure here at the key support line or we are about to crack back down to a frightening level. Considering we still have to get through at least half of September I'm somewhat assuming we'll slide downward somewhere between $53k-$56k. Worst case would be more like $45k, but the worst case is never the worst if you're willing to leverage long and you happen to nail it... which I am definitely going to do if we hit $45k. IMO that's the free-money bet in this scenario, or at least akin to getting pocket aces in a poker tournament.
On the top side BTC is completely unbound.
Even if BTC spiked up to $100k tomorrow I would be very hesitant to short it. 2024 is the THIRD YEAR of the cycle. You simply don't sell in the third year. It's always dumb. Remember how many people sold at $20k in Q4 2020? They were all posting on social media like they were geniuses. Somehow I get the feeling that exact type of thing is going to happen at $100k, and they will all get quiet and refuse to post their losses like they always do. Gambler's syndrome strong. $100k is now an anticlimactic price point, laser-eyes be damned.
Existential threats to the economy?
Gold is still at all time highs. Warren Buffet is still selling stock. The FED is still pivoting because of the "job market". Then again Bitcoin is still uncorrelated to stocks. Buffet is 94 years old. He's clearly not at the top of his game. It's been a known fact that central banks have been accumulating gold for years. Is it really surprising number went up finally? The system that crypto intends to replace cracking is not necessarily a reason to panic.
Point being is that most of the time the market swings early when they fear a recession is looming. These things never come when we are watching, but rather when we are complacent. It's hard to imagine a crippling recession striking as we all watch it go down and brace for impact. Something tells me we might have to wait a year or longer before something major happens. I'm unconvinced it matters either way; keep stacking.
One year to realize fundamentals
It takes at least one full year for fundamentals to generate actual value. Full potential can take 18 months or even longer. How long have we waited? ETF approval was in January. The constant need for instant gratification is honestly an embarrassment at a certain point. Or maybe it's just a grand opportunity to anyone who can summon an ounce of discipline and outplay every other market participant. Something tells me Blackrock, Miscrostrategy, Fidelity, and Paypal are going to come out way on top this time around. Retail? Not so much.
Conclusion
We went from GREED to FEAR in one week on an 8% dip down to the tried and true support line. The people in this game are lacking conviction right now; even the ones that have been around for multiple cycles. A crab market lasting this long really has degens on edge, even though it started much sooner than it was supposed to, and thus has given us a lot of runway to work with.
A year ago BTC was $27k. If we had just slowly gone up this whole time from $27k to $58 everyone would be wildly bullish, but because it played out the way it did everyone is losing their minds. Zoom out.
I don't know who is selling to Blackrock, but you wouldn't catch me dead selling to those vipers in the third year of the cycle. BTC on exchanges is at all time lows and still we see a major lack of conviction on a psychological level. Suck it up, buttercup. You can thank yourself later.