So much fear in the market now...

Both the equities and crypto markets are facing a massive sell-off now. Fear has gripped both of these markets but are they oversold?

Source

I made a post yesterday that the SPY is likely to see some support at the 288 level. However, the market "beat" my expectations and went even lower. SPY is now struggling to hold the 150w SMA level as seen from the chart below.

In my last post, I warned about the weakness in the junk bond market being something of serious concern. Today the junk bond market continues its sell-off

The junk bond market has been sold to a level similar to December 2018. Hence, it is at a critical level in my opinion. Any further sell-off might represent serious underlying problems that have not surfaced to retail investors yet.

However, the market typically do not go vertically down for long. I am anticipating some kind of bounce soon as the RSI is near to oversold region on the weekly interval. Notice that the last time this happened was in December 2018. Hence, I am looking to sell some put options as the premiums are super yummy now :p

As for BTC, it is currently clinging on to the trendline which I drew in yellow. The 7600-7700 seems like a important support for BTC. If it convincing breaks below, then it probably will be going to the 7100-7200 range which does not look good.

However, if you ask me whether I will be selling my crypto, I will reply with a straight "no". With the Bitcoin rewards halving just less than 2 months away, I find that it will be too risky to sell now. The cryptocurrency market is one where we have a lot of asymmetry. The potential upside is so much bigger than the downside and I am certain I do not want to miss the halving pump.

Once again, this is not financial advice. Just sharing my thought process and how I am navigating this market events.

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