This is Cryptothesis, and it is time I review my crypto thesis again!
We are currently approximately 395 days away from the next Bitcoin halving, according to https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/.
That is the catalyst to the bull market most crypto enthusiasts are waiting for.
But the question is, do we have a plan when that time comes?
The big plan is to take profit, as many have said. What can be sure is that the newcomers experiencing the first bull market would likely not know what to do and will miss out on taking profits.
My prediction, however, is that we probably won't have as many of these noobs as the previous bull market who leave too much on the table to lose it all. All these years of crypto education and experience would have left behind traces such as this post to remind more people to take profits earlier. The collective effect could be that the bull market is shortlived, and prices come down again for people to accumulate.
I imagine this to be a sign of maturing market.
Looking at my own portfolio, I must be prepared that some tokens might not moon in the next bull market. Either because the project sucks, or the players in the crypto market are becoming more conservative.
Take the BTC price movement as an example, if the conservative play by the crypto enthusiasts pans out, it will take longer for BTC to break all-time high.
Now, the bet for me is based on consideration of the probability of the price breaking all-time high and staying up there, versus oscillating between all-time high and lower prices.
Somehow the probability of the latter is higher, judging from previous data points.
It is for this reason why I tend to take the middle groud, i.e. fill up my bags in case it moons, but trade the range bounds to increase my yield.
This is the middle ground I am adopting.
P/S: This is not financial advice, and please do your own due diligence before investing.
If you read this far... and if you are a like-minded Hiver who is on the path to learning more about Hive and crypto investing, and if you like to be tagged when I write such posts, I welcome you to leave a comment below and let me know. We can form an alliance to support each other's growth.
You might be interested in this post, @thatkidsblack, @graciousvic, @deflacion, @jacoalberts, @young-kedar, @svanbo, @sumotori, @zakludick, @poplar-22 and @hankanon!