Drama ends
What a drama these past days have been! At least for those who followed the events closely. After it seemed clear for weeks now that approval will happen beginning of January, the days went by with no news from the SEC. Then yesterday there was a post on X claiming approval but a few minutes later that was denied and it turned out that it was fake news. The SEC account on X had been hacked. Then tonight while time was running up finally there was an approval document posted on the SEC website but was not downloadable, 404 Error. Probably the server was down because of the many requests of us all.
By now though it is clear, that Satoshis‘ creation will hit Wall Street. Bitcoin has arrived in mainstream finance and is here to stay!
What will happen next?
Well, obviously we don’t have a monster/god candle yet. But to be honest, after such a back and forth many people are still a bit paralyzed, the news hasn’t sunk in. Bitcoin is currently trading around 45k which is about the level as yesterday.
BUT the good news is that trading of these ETFs will start right tomorrow. Which means from tomorrow on the big companies like Blackrock, Fidelity or Van Eck will have to buy Satoshis on the Spot market for every Dollar invested. And there is a lot of money waiting to be invested. Rumors say that Blackrock alone already has 2 Billion Dollars of customer orders lined up for the start. Estimations are wide but many experts expect double to triple digit numbers of billions of dollars could get invested in the coming months, making it one of the biggest ETF launches in history of Wall Street.
My takeaway
In my opinion the most important point here is that Bitcoin arrived at mainstream. Now everyone can get exposure to Bitcoin easily, with low cost and without the danger of losing it to hackers or their own forgetfulness. People can now shift safely parts of their money into a Bitcoin investment, without having to know anything about wallets, private keys or blockchain technology.
Some might say, that this is not what Bitcoin was built for. Not your keys, not your coins! Which is correct at the end of the day. But most people want it easy and convenient. They don’t want to learn all those details or simply don’t have the time for that. They want to just call their broker or financial consultant and tell them to put 1% or 5% of their money into an ETF, which then sits along with their Microsoft and Amazon stocks in their securities account at Fidelity or Bank of America.
Maybe some of those people will take self custody in the coming years, once that gets more convenient too, but a lot of people will just do it this way I think.
We will see how much inflows the Spot ETFs will get in the future. The first days will give us a good indication of the momentum I think. More important though are the months to come. A rising demand will meet a supply that will get cut in half in April. My bet is still a new ATH in 2024 and latest next year a well six digit Bitcoin price.
What are your expectations for the weeks and months to come?
