October is only six days in, and it's already managed to confuse the masses on CT. Bears came out of the woods when BTC dropped below $66,000 about a week ago, but now the bulls "are so back" as the market shows signs of a strong rebound.
As I’ve said in previous posts, I’m staying calm and firmly believe the best is yet to come in this bull market. The current price action and sentiment in crypto remind me a lot of late 2020. Halving years aren’t the time to sell your bags, IMO, but as history has shown in previous cycles, it’s usually profitable to become bullish once the halving occurs.
The masses aren’t bullish yet, and that’s a good thing, IMO, because it means the gains we’ve seen so far are nothing compared to what’s coming.
But the same old question haunts us every bull cycle: Who’s going to buy our bags? Well, I have a couple of relevant answers.
As I mentioned earlier, "the masses aren’t there yet," meaning they’re still on the sidelines. Some have never owned crypto, but they’re about to get their first coins, and these are the people who will buy our bags (the top).
Then you’ve got early investors who bought during the bear market but sold when BTC hit $74,000. They’re still waiting for a $44,000 BTC to buy lower, but that’s not going to happen. FOMO will take over their minds too. I know the feeling—you think you’ve missed the "meat in between" and hope to catch it in the final leg of the market.
Well, guess what? Greed’s going to mess with your judgment, and you’ll end up holding heavy bags because you expect the bull market to meet your targets when, in reality, the market never sides with the masses.
When I talk about late buyers this cycle, I expect institutions to get rekt too, not just retail. A lot of institutional investing decisions are made by "retail-type minds." You’d be shocked at how much money so-called "smart money" (institutions) loses sometimes.
The psychology of the market is simple and repetitive, yet most of us make the same mistakes every cycle. The market somehow convinces us that "this time is different," but in reality, it never is.
Halving cycles follow the same pattern, no matter what BS some analysts spread online, like these supercycle theories. The people following those geniuses are going to end up buying the cycle tops again, trust me.
That’s it from my side for now. Wishing you all a great Sunday—see you next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian