By: Firryan Syafa Kumar Political Science Student at Syiah Kuala University (USK) Banda Aceh
It has been a year since the Russian state under the leadership of Vladimir Putin invaded the Ukrainian state under the leadership of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It should be noted that these two countries are the same country or a unified country, which at that time was known as the Soviet Union. Then in 1991 it finally split into 15 states including Russia and Ukraine. This was caused by the failure of the economic policies implemented by the leader of the Soviet Union at that time, namely Mikhail Gorbachev, resulting in an economic crisis.
What caused these two countries to get involved in the conflict? So, has the conflict between the two
countries actually been around for a long time or has it just happened?
Actually, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on since 2013, at which time there was a crisis in Ukraine and the President of Ukraine at that time namely Victor Yanukovich refused to sign trade cooperation with the European Union and Victor preferred to accept The assistance that came from the Russian side was in the form of a loan of about 15 billion US dollars and a 30 percent discount on gas prices from Russia.
Victor Yanukovich's reason for refusing trade cooperation with the European Union was because Victor was afraid that it would threaten the cooperation between his side and Russia and because that would eventually lead Russia to annex the Crimean peninsula which is Ukraine's territory to join Russia in 2014. Then shortly after that pro-Russian separatist movements appeared in several regions in Ukraine and they declared independence from the Ukrainian capital.
Based on the decisions made by Victor Yanukovich who were pro-Russia and the events of the declaration of independence in several regions of Ukraine, the Ukrainian people became angry and protested against Victor Yanukovich's government, which was considered to prefer pro-Russia. Meanwhile, the majority of the Ukrainian people at that time preferred to favor the West or the European Union. The protests occurred and took place in Kiev in 2013 until they continued in 2014.
Over time, the protests by the people of Ukraine eventually turned into a violent tragedy that occurred against the demonstrators, causing dozens of demonstrators to be killed and hundreds of other demonstrators experiencing a significant impact.
The various mediations that have been carried out, even to the efforts of mediators from outside countries such as France, Poland and Germany to resolve this conflict were in fact less successful, so that in February 2014 the civil conflict continued and for the fate of Victor Yanukovich himself he was finally demoted from the presidency of Ukraine and replaced temporarily by President Olexander Turchnyov. In 2015, he was replaced by President Petro Poroshenco, who in the end formed a new government in Ukraine that was pro-western or European Union.
The culmination of the conflict between the two countries was in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin finally declared war on Ukraine, because at that time Ukraine would join NATO and Ukraine's joining NATO made Russia feel threatened by assuming that NATO wanted to expand into Europe. East, including Ukraine whose territory borders with Russia because of that Russia considers that NATO's expansion into Ukraine will be seen as disturbing Russia's national security.
What global economic impacts have arisen from this Russia-Ukraine war?
So, after one year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, of course it has had several impacts on the global economy including:
Russia's attack on Ukraine has affected world oil prices. Moreover, Russia is a country rich in energy resources.
Inflation in several countries worsened, the Russian-Ukrainian war exacerbated the inflation problem and resulted in price spikes in countries around the world.
Making investors hold transactions on the stock market, even investors have the potential to carry out massive selling actions, the reason being the increase in world oil prices and inflation due to Russia's military action making investors worried about the process of economic recovery in the world.
This conflict disrupts economic growth or slows down the pace of world economic growth.
Increase in interest rates because if inflation rises above 10 percent, surely the Fed will control prices by raising interest rates more quickly. This can increase the cost of borrowing for consumers in all respects
Well, the Indonesian economy itself is also affected by this conflict, such as rising oil and fuel prices, because the majority of Indonesia's oil supply comes from imports and it also disrupts trade flows between Indonesia and Russia and Ukraine, as we know that our country has strong bilateral relations. seen from the economic, political, defense, security, social and cultural aspects of the two countries.
It can be concluded that the war between Russia and Ukraine had an impact on the world, one of which was in the global economic sector where the impact of the war caused losses in several countries. Therefore, we really hope that the conflict between the two countries can be resolved properly from both sides.[] Source: portalsatu.com