What Caused Previous 2021 Adoption ?
When looking at what actually caused the previous Splinterlands Adoption Wave in 2021, I think everyone can agree that it wasn't the actual game. Even though it was ok and probably in a better state as it is right now since things became more complicated with the requirement of SPS staking, switch between Modern & Wild, Rewards having become Soulbound, ...
The main reason that people wanted to get into Splinterlands was because they saw prices going up which was the result of the creation of SPS airdrop which required existing players to hold on to their assets to receive it. Since DEC was included in the airdrop which at that time was the token printed out of thin air to reward players, that went up above peg as well creating higher earnings. With a mechanic that more DEC was printed the higher it went above peg, things went absolutely wild and with no card packs available all asset prices followed.
All this happened in a period of about 3 months and it was followed by The Chaos Legion Release of which both the price and print rate was increased exponentially causing the supply to explode and with the combination of falling prices as DEC was always going to get back to peg while the low supply and high demand of SPS only lasted that long for everything to come down and get in a death spiral which we are still in years later.
Price Increase Causes Adoption and Not The Other Way Around!
When it comes down to crypto, in nearly all cases when there is initial adoption, it is the result of the price having gone up and not the other way around where that the price goes up because there is some adoption.
This creates a spiral as the adoption that comes from the price having gone up will make the price go up more creating even more adoption and so on...
So the main question in Splinterlands to turn things around should be how can we get the price to go up and not so much how can we get new players in as it simply won't happen with the game in a depressed state like it is in now.
Tales From The Crypt Mancer Video
The New Player Experience
In the past 9 months, a lot has been said about the 'New Player Experience' and there have been some changes already with how the menu looks, the Glints store, the site rentals which all are kind of minor changes that don't really do that much and I'm not really sure what is left to come that actually would make the experience of new players better.
It is said that this new player experience will allow the team to do some marketing which they are now getting Funds from the DHF for.
The Marketing Deception
I'm quite sure that marketing Splinterlands (and Hive) will turn out in a major deception with the cost being way higher compared to what it actually brings to the game. As Tales pointed out, it failed for Illuvium who had an exponentially larger budget and they actually stopped it since it was not worth it.
In the end, especially with what Splinterlands has as a game right now, the only real thing that counts and matters is a big green candle as that is the only thing the majority of people care about. Some kind of fomo and belief of new players that come in again to do well is needed in order to get them in.
3 Major Overhangs That Need To Be Fixed !
- Too Many Cards in Circulation!
- Too Much DEC in Circulation!
- Not enough SPS Utility!
Proposed Solutions!
These are some of the proposed in the video that make sense and immediately would make a change.
- Warpgate in Land where you can burn cards which create consumable cards that act as a item/spell in modern
- Building in Guild where you can burn cards to get another guild benefit for example use 1 extra gladiator card.
- Extra Energy for Each 100k SPS Staked: in order to give more incentive to stake SPS. if it was up to me reduced the rate at which Energy is refreshed could be 80 Minutes instead of 60 to balance it out.
- Pay DEC to see Alternate Team Suggestion: After you play a battle Splinterlands could show an alternate better team selection at the cost of some DEC to help players study and get better at it.
- ...
These are all quite easy and straightforward changes that would help the price up and I might do qome brainstorm myself to come up with some more ideas next week.
Printing Cards is a Problem, Not a Solution!
So far, pretty much every problem that the team and the DAO faced was 'solved' by printing more Promo cards. Even now, the proposal of paying ~200k to develop land came with the creation of 2 more Promo Cards which seems to be passed by all the whales.
If anything, Splinterlands should have a complete cards print stop for some time combined with a burn as there are more than enough cards in the game already to have fun with them without it getting old for years to come.
Conclusion
This concept on how Green Candles are the only thing that matters is so painfully obvious and the most frustrating part is that nor the team or the whales in the game seem to understand this. What happens next is for the new player experience to be finished followed by throwing the HBD at marketing which won't make a difference aside from more money being lost. |  |  |
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