Good morning Splinterlandians,
I wanted to drop a quick prediction for you, as well as my thoughts on how to benefit from it should it play out this way.
Keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, just the musings of a semi-sane Dingus.
"Captain"...
Oh right, CaptainDingus... anyways... on to the prediction!
If you've been involved in Splinterlands for more than a few weeks, you remember the pricing of the cards BEFORE CL was Presold, then available for this "sorta-kinda-presale... but not" thing... going on.
Don't get me wrong, I am ONE HUNDRED PERCENT behind the throttling of the sale of these cards as they have done.
Could you imagine, wanting to buy CL packs only to have some whale scoop up 14 Million at once?!? Then reselling them at ridiculous markups... Yikes. Kudos to the SPS team for their foresight!
However... I suspect with the Price Action (PA) of the market we've seen already... that is but a TASTE of what's to come...
Currently we are 1.2 Million packs into distribution (see photo below)
After 1.2M packs hit the market the price of cards across the rarities has plummeted to levels I've never seen before... because I wasn't around during the last set drop lol...
Before CL cards hit the market the current/actively distributed Reward Cards were always the cheapest to buy due to their large supply #'s and being INFLATIONARY as in - they were the only cards being actively added to the supply pool... every other card was DEFLATIONARY as in the supply was diminished as they were Leveled Up or... BURNED FFS... (see photo below)
Before the drop, these Commons were around $.17 and would dip with distribution (Season Rewards) to the $.12-.$13 cent range if you were lucky!
But now... let's see how they compare with the current market conditions (see below)
EGADS!! It looks like the CL cards are competing with these Reward Cards... in addition, the influx of cards due to Packs being available is driving prices DOWNWARD... This, of course, is a "DUH".
The lowest price I personally saw, Pre CL Cards was $.12 for a Gargoya Lion... Which is now $.07-$.08...
HOWEVER... This is where I urge CAUTION and DISCIPLINE...
With only the CURRENT Supply Influx... these prices dipped significantly - which can be awesome...
However, looking at the number in circulation of Reward vs CL we can see the Reward Commons have roughly 550k in Circulation... whereas the CL commons have only 50k... ALREADY.
When the Limited Sale Ends... all bets are off...
We are currently at 1.2Mn/15Mn or 8% of the Packs sold... which doesn't translate to 8% opened and in circulation/on market...
If we use a gross approximation and take the current # of Gargoya Scrappers in circulation and divide by 8% (50,377/.08)...
We get a REALLY rough estimate of total circulation... which would be 629,712 Gargoya Scrappers but we know this to be on the LOW side...
With 50k of these commons now, I suspect I know what will happen when 500k hit the market as Packs become available without needing a Voucher.
As tempting as it may be to want to buy as many CL cards as possible now... I believe we will see a Moderate to Large DOWNWARD shift in Market price as a previously unbelievable supply cards become available... 15Mn Packs x 5 = 75Mn Cards...
After a few COUGH Chaotic Days... or even Weeks... I believe the market will stabilize (it always does)...
Then, as the CL Cards become DEFLATIONARY as less packs are opeed... we will see their values (as well as all other cards) start to creep up... With the more useful ones taking leaps and bounds ahead of others as the cheap supply is snapped up.
What I'm doing personally - and understand... I don't care if you say "Dingus is an idiot, F*%^ that guy" and spend every last dime RIGHT MEOW on CL Cards...
As I was saying...
I don't care if you go spend every last DEC you own on cards, I'm not telling you what to do with your Credits...
I am saying... that I am personally exercising restraint and buying just a few cards each day with DEC I win from battles and Loot Chests... All 1 DEC OF THEM...
I'm taking my DEC and buying a few cards here and there as I see fit... however, I'm keeping the BULK of my buying power in RESERVE as I personally believe price will drop MUCH further... Possibly even to the... $.01/Common range 😳😲😬
Don't worry... It's not all Doom, Gloom and Terry Crews Pecs...
The GOOD news is... we will have access to ULTRA CHEAP cards for a relatively short window...
This is great for new players who don't have to look at the market and see an Alpha Flesh Golem at $50... or an Alric at $250...
They can purchase a good selection of cards, affordably - this will onboard a lot of players... I hope. Price can be a significant barrier to entry if you can't "enjoy" the game without spending thousands... This isn't Axie... thankfully.
If the team of Splinterlands allows the market to cool just a bit before launching the next set... maybe getting Land launched 😏😁😆... I believe the price per card will begin to rise as they're combined to Level Up and the market conditions will return to a... goddamn I hate to use this word... F%^&ing 2020 bullshit... the market will return to a "New Normal" 🤢🤢🤮🤮
HATE THAT EXPRESSION
Anyways... I hope you found this "not advice" useful, I hope you keep some powder dry for those tasty buying opportunities and I hope you crack a few Gold Foil Legos when you're opening your packs!
Thanks for reading, if you found this useful show me some Luv by sending some Pizza or Beer my way... Upvotes and Follows are always awesome ways to show your appreciation for my work and worldplay in the wonderful world of wizardry we know as Splinterlands.
I look forward to reading any comments that you leave - and I tend to Upvote them as thanks... just saying 🤷♂️
See you around,
CaptainDingus
