USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) and USS Nimitz (CVN-68) and their carrier strike groups steam in formation on July 6, 2020. source

A multipolar world.

The ground is shifting below our feet. The age of a US unipolar world has come to an end, we are now living in a multipolar world, of rising powers, changing expectations and rumors of war.

During long periods of peace, where one superpower has an overwhelming advantage over all others, there is an element of complacency that sets in with that sole superpower. A “we can’t lose” attitude that often leads to poor policy choices and short term thinking.

But then, the current superpower, the US, begins to be challenged by an emerging superpower, China. And even though the relative strength of the US is losing ground to China…the Americans still think that “they can’t lose.” And they can do something, which they can't do, like sustainably defending an island (Taiwan) 110 miles off the coast of a major military power (China).

A 2015 Rand Corporation publication postulated a future 2017 conflict in China’s periphery, which said, “China enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible conflict scenarios, and geographical advantage would likely neutralize many U.S. military strengths.” And this is a 2017 scenario, let alone a scenario 10 to 20 years from now.

China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group passing between Okinawa and Miyako Island. source

War sobers the mind.

Following the devastation of World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union emerged as the two sole superpowers…moving into an era of a half century of great power competition, and the looming threat of nuclear war. When the Soviet Union collapsed, because its economy could no longer sustain it's hold on satellite states plus a competitive military with the US, the United States became the sole superpower by default in 1990. To US leaders, this event was an opportunity to shape the rest of the world in it's image.

The Cold War between the Americans and the Soviet began just a year or so after the end of World War II… so leaders in both nations were well aware of the devastation of war and attempted the best they could to avoid a new one. However, the last great war ended in 1945, 77 years ago, and almost all of those who fought in that war are gone…their children are now our leaders, but they are increasingly being succeeded by their own children…two generations removed from war.

A Taiwanese F-16 fighter shadows a Chinese H-6 bomber over the Taiwan Strait. source

Not knowing the price of war.

War is unforgiving. It is chaotic misery, respected by those who had to endure it. And not easily conveyed or comprehended by those who have not. Most parents do not convey the horrors of war to their children so as to spare them the grim litany of true evil. So their children do not know the price of war or how it is created, and even less, their grandchildren. To this end, their children and grandchildren do not know how to avoid it.

To add to this, the United States has not seen protracted war on its soil since 1865, in our own Civil War. American civilians did not suffer the death and devastation the way Europeans, Russians, Africans, Arabs and Asians did through the two great wars of the 20th century, WWI and WWII. This adds to US complacency.

Complacency leads to poor diplomacy, poor diplomacy leads to miscommunication, miscommunication leads to conflict, and conflict leads to war.

Satellite image of the Taiwan Strait, separated mainland China on the left, from the island of Taiwan on the right. NASA photo source

The complacency of a long peace, and the sobering wretch of costly wars.

This complacency concerns me. The world order that the United States and the planet is used to, is eroding away. And yet, the US is proselytizing our willingness to defend an island that is indefensible without unacceptable cost.

Plus, there is a growing likelihood that strategic weapons will be used in the next war (hypersonic and ballistic missiles), which puts the United States and China at great risk of being hit at home…evolving into a total war of millions dead. Not to mention Australia, Japan, Southeast and South Asia, Russia, Europe, Middle East...and even South and Latin America may not be spared…wars metastasize quickly as nations take advantage of the chaos.

So to Americans, Chinese and the world, let us not be complacent, let us not unnecessarily create evils we cannot control…or we will all pay dearly for it.

Stay frosty people.