Russian troops now control 90% of the city
On April 21st it was reported that detachments of Russian Wagner troops have entrenched themselves on the Bakhmut-Chasov Yar highway, which is known as the “Road of Death” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). This road is the last supply route for the AFU in Bakhmut. Wagner troops have taken several hundred metres of this road under control which makes it extremely difficult to supply the AFU garrison.
According to the Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister, Hannah Malyar, some Ukrainian troops are retreating from their positions in the city. On 21st April she said;
The situation there is very difficult. The city is completely destroyed, it is difficult to hold positions in such conditions.
The so-called “Road of Death” is highway 0-0506 which connects the western suburbs of Bakhmut with Chasov Yar. This was the last relatively safe road which could bring in supplies/reinforcements and take out the wounded.
Wagner assault troops have crossed the railway line in the centre of the city and are advancing into the western suburbs. This gives them fire control over the supply routes of the AFU, as a result of which Ukrainian troops are losing up to 90% of the equipment and people sent to the garrison in the city. On 20 April the Washington Post ran a piece Ukraine Defends Bakhmut despite US warnings in leaked documents which admitted that Ukraine’s forces "still cling to the city’s western edge."
Options
Over the last week the Russian air force has been using heavy bombs called FAB 500s to destroy fortified positions of the AFU. In this situation Ukrainian forces have several options. It’s first option, therefore, is to pour reinforcements into the city. However, numerous sources indicate that Ukrainian units are losing over 500 men killed every day.
The second option is to retreat along dirt roads under heavy artillery fire from the Russians. However, Ukraine has lost scores of vehicles in recent weeks due to accurate fire from Russian guns.
Their third option is to retreat across open fields. Unfortunately for the AFU it has been raining heavily in Bakhmut for almost the entire past week, and it is predicted it will continue to rain over the next seven days. This heavy rain fall has led fields to turn into muddy quagmires, where even tanks have been known to get stuck.
Finally, the last option is for the AFU to launch a flank counter attack to try and break the Russian siege of the city.
At a meeting yesterday, President Zelensky demanded that General Syrsky defends Bakhmut at least until May 9;
In order not to give the Kremlin a big information victory.
As in Russia, May 9 is celebrated as the defeat of German fascism in World War Two.
May 9 Vicotry Day celebration tradition
Analysis
Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian troops are putting up very stubborn resistance to Wagner forces as they advance into the Western suburbs of Bakhmut. Russian military analyst Boris Rozhin on April 23rd wrote about the approaching fall of the city. Wagner assault troops continue to advance methodically in the north western quarters of the city, as well as in neighbourhoods to the west of the centre. They continue to advance towards the high rise buildings on the western outskirts of the city. Russian shelling of these buildings is intensifying. The Russian Ministry of Defence is reporting that Wagner units are taking several neighbourhoods each day in the western suburbs of Bakhmut.
Boris Rozhin, aka ColonelCassad's Telegram channel
Rozhin further notes that despite tremendous difficulties and heavy losses, the AFU continues to try to push infantry reinforcements and ammunition into Bakhmut. Rozhin has concluded that Russian troops are not chasing a specific date for the conquest of the city:
All the more so because the main thing now is to destroy the AFU reserves, which the enemy is pulling down near Artemovsk (Bakhmut). This task is being very successfully accomplished. Already now, we can say that the Artemovsk battle has confused the plans of the United States and NATO to conduct operations in Ukraine in the spring of 2023. As for the dates, we can recall that the same task was given to the encircled troops at Azovstal, who survived until May 9 (2022) and then began to capitulate from May 16-17.
The head of PMC Wagner, Prigozhin, stated yesterday that as soon as his troops liberate Bakhmut the Armed Forces of Ukraine will launch a spring counter offensive. He claims that this will be due to the fact that Zelensky will need a PR ‘victory’ to placate his Western sponsors.
However, the prospects for Ukraine’s long awaited counter-offensive are looking increasingly bleak. The commander of AFU forces in the Kharkov region, General Serhiy Melnyk, has confirmed that the core of Ukraine’s regular army has already been destroyed. Melnyk said this in a recent interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais;
The problem is that we will never have enough men and equipment. Because those who are professional military...are already exhausted, wounded or recovering. Or they have died. So we invite people without military experience and train them.
The General also said that the AFU has a dire shortage of ammunition for artillery and tanks.
This prognosis is confirmed by the above piece in the Washington Post which noted that the intensity of the fighting is such that Ukrainian units sent to Bakhmut needs to be rotated after only two weeks due to very heavy casualties while mortar units were rationed to firing 6 rounds a day. It also quoted a Colonel Pavlo Palais, an AFU commander in the city, who said that a dire shortage of ammunition was costing the lives of their infantry
We don’t have enough rounds to engage them [the Russians] and I recognise we are paying with the lives of our soldiers.
The fall of Bakhmut is looking increasingly likely in the short term. The only thing which could save the Ukrainian garrison is for the AFU to launch a large scale counter attack into the Russian flanks. This is very unlikely due to the bad weather in the area which makes the passage of armour very difficult.
The Pentagon documents leaked by US serviceman Jack Teixeira reveal that the Kiev government was warned by Washington back in January that defending Bakhmut was costing too many casualties and that it should cut it losses to avoid its inevitable fall. Sadly, it appears the Zelensky government is committed to playing into the hands of the Russian military by defending Bakhmut to the last man putting in jeopardy its spring offensive.
