The Continuing Battle for Bakhmut
Over the last two weeks Russian troops have made significant advances into northern, central and southern Bakhmut. The bulk of the Ukrainian garrison has retreated to defensive lines in the Western suburb of the city. During this retreat Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses in both men and materials.
Despite the fact that Bakhmut is in a state of operational encirclement President Zelensky calls up more and more reserves from among the elite Ukrainian units to defend the city. According to the Military Chronicle, since the beginning of this month, various units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have reported to Kiev on the imminent physical encirclement of the city by units of the Russian Wagner forces.
These reports note that Wagner assault troops are threatening to cut off all possibility of retreat from the city. Platoon and company commanders of several territorial defence battalions have threatened to leave their positions by the end of April if artillery support and the provision of a safety corridor for retreat is not provided.
On the 11th April the Telegram channel Z-committee reported that the railway station in the centre of the city had passed under the control of Wagner troops. Then on the 12th April the pro-Ukrainian Warmapper channel on Telegram confirmed that Wagner troops had advanced further west of the centre of the city taking control of the Metalurh Stadium. According to the military analysts RVvoenkor Telegram channel, AFU units are pursuing a scorched earth policy as they retreat to the western suburbs of Bakhmut.
The Telegraph
They are blowing up and setting fire to multi-story buildings in order to slow down the Russian advance.
Heavy Casualties for Ukraine
As each day passes Ukrainian troops are sustaining very heavy casualties. According to a recent report in the German newspaper Bild, many Ukrainian soldiers are wondering why they are fighting in Bakhmut. Yang Humin who visited the city for Bild, observed that;
Apparently, it’s only a matter of time before they [the Russians] completely take Bakhmut...The Russians are slowly but surely winning the battle for Bakhmut.
The same journalist admitted that Wagner forces control about 75% of the city.
The largest Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera, recently published a report from the Bakhmut front. AFU soldiers said that the General Staff is calling;
on the soldiers to stay in the western urban area in order to destroy the maximum number of Russian soldiers and focus their attention while we prepare our next offensive.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel Lgeitimny has observed that the Bakhmut meat grinder is slowing down the accumulation of ammunition for the upcoming offensive by the AFU.
The dire situation facing the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut is unlikely to improve. Recent counter attacks by AFU troops have failed to repel Wagner assault troops. Some sources suggest that the Wagner sources will attempt to push AFU units completely out of the city before the spring thaw ends. Once the ground firms up then there is a possibility of Ukraine deploying tanks and other armored units to relieve it’s beleaguered garrison in Bakhmut.
The renowned military analyst Boris Rozhin, aka Colonel Cassad, has issued a detailed assessment for the endgame of this battle;
The depressive statements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about the prospects of holding the remnants of the city reflect the systemic deterioration of the situation as a result of the actions of the Wagner PMC [Private Mercenary Company] in the city and the Russian Armed Forces to the north and south of Artenovsk [Bakhmut]. It has not been possible to unblock the roads to the city or to restore the unproblematic transfer of reserves and ammunition to the city. This leads to the depletion of the AFU grouping in Artenovsk and makes it somewhat easier for Wagner to clean up the city blocks.
Rozhin goes on to note that;
In view of this, the trends that formed at the end of February in Artenovsk persist and lead to the final loss of the city, which will have to be somehow “sold” to society and the AFU troops, who have been told by propaganda for a long time that “no-one can take Bakhmut” and “this is Ukraine’s Stalingrad”. In the end, there will be another defeat and the loss of a major city.
Recently leaked documents from the US Pentagon reveal how the American military does not believe that Ukraine’s upcoming offensive will have much success. The continuing defence of Bakhmut by the AFU is putting in jeopardy the possibility of any kind of an offensive even being launched.
The fall of Bakhmut to Russian forces now appears to be a certainty.
The fall of this fortified and strategically important city will deal a massive blow to Kiev. It will enable the Russians to advance towards Chasov Yar and from there towards the cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Further to this, it will deal a devastating blow to Ukrainian morale and maybe the catalyst for Russia to launch it’s long awaited offensive.
