By September of this year it was clear that Ukraine’s much heralded summer offensive had failed. Despite billions in Western military aid and the supply of numerous ‘wonderwaffen’ the AFU had lost more territory than its had retaken this year. As Ukraine’s offensive petered out Moscow activated battle groups on several fronts which are now having considerable success from Kupyansk to Adveeka.
On 13 November the Ukrainian Telegram channel Rezident reported that:
Our source in the OP [Office of the President] said that [General] Syrsky reported to Zelensky about the difficult situation in the Svatovsky direction, he asks to urgently send reserves to Kupyansk in order to prevent the front from collapsing. Russian troops have been actively conducting an offensive for the last ten days. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost several key villages.
This advance which has taken Russian troops to within 2 km of the town is accompanied by the Russian offensive to capture the strategically important city of Adveeka which is turning into another bloody quagmire for the AFU which many are calling ‘’Bakmut 2.0’’.
On 24 October the Rezident channel reported:
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at headquarters demanded that [AFU Commander in Chief] Zaluzhny hold Adveeka by any means so as to not repeat the situation with the shameful loss of the Bakmut fortress.
The President’s Office ignored all the arguments of the Commander-in-Chief about the complexity of defending the city, which is semi-encircled, and the enemy is conducting the Adveeka noose operation, exhausting the Ukrainian Armed Forces according to the Bakmut meat grinder scenario.
Zelensky last year being hailed by Congress
As the Slavyngrad Military channel on Telegram has observed on 28 October:
This will end up worse for them than 'Bakmut’. For the loss of heavily fortified Adveeka, seriously threatens the entire Donetsk sector. Moreover our occupation of Adveeka [will] give us a magnificent fortified area, based on which we will continue to advance. This, by the way, is why the Adeevsky fortified area was built. Kiev planned to attack [the city of ] Donetsk based on Adveeka.
Moreover, there is a large [AFU] group in Adveeka, and if we take the entire region as a whole, the main group of the AFU. Its defeat could be the final blow that will break the militants and then they will flee.
It is worth recalling that the AFU has used Adveeka as base of operations for its artillery which have been shelling Donetsk since 2014 causing thousands of civilian casualties. So the loss of Adveeka would end the daily shelling of Donetsk and other towns and cities in the DPR.
Slayvangrad has observed that Russian forces have taken Adveeka into operational encirclement with two pincers advancing from two flanks: northern and southern. The main supply routes for the AFU garrison are now under some degree of fire control of Russian artillery inflicting considerable losses on supply columns entering the city. The corridor through which Ukrainian forces in Adveeka can receive supplies has fallen to 5-6 kilometres.
It appears that the Russian high command decided to abandon, “the deep breakthrough tactics, allowing the enemy in this area to constantly try to counterattack. The AFU throw into these counterattacks not just “mobilized’’ meat, but personnel, selected units of the Adveeka garrison. That is, we have the opportunity to destroy them in the field without smoking them out of the dungeons of the Adveeka ‘coking plant’ for months. Which is worth a lot.’’
It should be pointed out that Adveeka has fewer natural obstacles than Bakmut did such as rivers, bridges etc.
According to the Russian military intelligence channel Rybar the last few weeks has seen the main emphasis on the northern flank. The Russian army has consolidated to the west of the railway line in the area of Stepovoye (Petrovsky) and the Adveeksy Coke and Chemical Plant. It is storming Stepovoye and has forced AFU units to retreat from the village which is now in the contested greyzone. Russian forces have also reached the outskirts of Koksozim. Latest reports suggest that Russian troops have cleared the treatment facilities southeast of the ash dump of the Adveesky Coke and Chemical Plant.
In the centre of the city Russian aviation is dropping heavy FAB bombs in an effort to raze Ukrainian fortified areas to the ground. On 14 November alone Russian warplanes dropped 30 FAB bombs on AFU fortifications.
In the south flank of the attack Russian soldiers advancing over 600-700 metres from Yasinovataya have managed to occupy 80% of the industrial zone on the south eastern edge of the city proper. Slavyangrad has observed:
Movement of such intensity in such a fortified area indicates low enemy morale, as well as a significant decrease in enemy supplies. Let me remind you that today [14 November] almost all roads are under our fire control...The fighting is gradually moving deeper into the administrative centers of the city. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the Ukrainian army to fight back.
The commander of the AFU garrison, Vitaly Barabash in Adveeka is reported by the Ukrainian channel Rezersvo as saying:
The situation in the city is very tense, the enemy does not give up trying to surround the city. They really storm both day and night. Barrel rocketry is working around the clock on our positions. Shooting battles almost do not subside either.
On 14 November the military blogger Simplicius observed that with the onset of winter, conditions for the AFU garrison in Adveeka will get a lot worse:
I’ve seen a recent pro-UA article claiming that coming winter conditions will be either equally bad for both sides, or even worse for Russia. That makes no sense; winter conditions will clearly be worse for the AFU because particularly in winter you need a constant supply of things like oil and gas for heaters, generators, etc. Food becomes more critical because human bodies burn much more calories each day in the cold. All these things under extreme pressure due to supply line fire control means the entrenched and surrounded Ukrainian defenders will be in excruciatingly miserable conditions.
Additionally, complete defoliation of tree cover will give even clearer line of sight to Russian fire-control capabilities and allow easier identification of enemy positions to pound out.’
His forecast as to how the battle will pan out over the next period is as follows:
That being said, Russia is in no particular rush and is likely enjoying the current meltdown happening amongst Ukrainian leadership. At this pace Avdeevka could still potentially hold out another 2-3 months, depending how hard Russia presses in.
But at the rate things are going, it sometimes feels like it’s a race between Avdeevka and Ukraine as a state itself, as to who will collapse first.
It would appear that Russian forces are advancing on multiple fronts with the capture of Adveeka being a major strategic objective. The capture of this city will relieve the citizens of Donetsk from 8 years of continuous artillery fire. Besides, this, it will deal a major blow to the AFU as Adveeka is a lynchpin of its defensive system on the Donetsk front. It will also deal a massive psychological blow to the Kiev regime which is in the grip of a deadly internecine power struggle between the Zelensky and his Commander in Chief Zaluzhny.