Ukraine War Update

As Ukraine’s losses mount the Western media resorts to increasingly misleading and untruthful accounts of events on the battlefield. These tactics illustrate a growing desperation to reassure Western public opinion that Russia is losing on the battlefield.

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Western Media Headlines

A good example of this being The Daily Telegraph which recently ran a piece with the title, ‘Bakhmut has turned into a Russian slaughter-fest’.
It quoted the US commander in chief General Mark Milley who made the unsubstantiated claim that Russian forces are getting ‘hammered’ in Bakhmut and that they had made “no progress whatsoever for the last 21 days”.

Careful analysis of Russian and Ukrainian sources reveal that Wagner combat troops have made progress in the northern, central and southern districts of Bakhmut in the last month. At the same time they have inflicted very heavy losses on the Ukrainian troops defending the city, many of whom are very poorly trained and equipped.

On 26 March the Sunday Times (‘Why Ukraine’s Defence of Bakhmut Matters’) acknowledged that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) are losing 200 killed per day! It further acknowledged that these heavy losses may force the Kiev government to choose between holding the city at all costs and retreating to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel “Resident’’ has recently observed that:

Now the strangest moment has come near Bakhmut, when we cannot leave the city, but we are also unable to organize a counter offensive due to weather conditions. [General] Syrsky made an elementary miscalculation when he did not take into account the situation in the field, that light equipment is not able to move and now the brought reserves are waiting. Why this plan was not implemented in January-February when we just lost Soledar and the encirclement of Bakhmut was going on, and start preparing for March, one can only guess.

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief

RIA Novosti has confirmed that Wagner troops have taken full control of the AZOM industrial plant in northern Bakhmut.

The military analysis channel South Front has confirmed reports that Russian forces have crossed the Bakhmut river in several places and taken control of the market in the centre of the city. Meanwhile the Budenivka and Sobachevsky districts in the south of the city have been captured. They have also taken control of the Avanguard stadium and continue to advance on the critical transport line of Khromove. It also noted that the UAF is sending special forces troop to the city to fight as infantry due to its heavy losses.

Two days ago the Russian founder of the Wagner military formation, whose troops are fighting in Bakhmut, made the following frank observation regarding the battle for Bakmut:

After the capture of Popasna, the battle for Bakhmut was planned by my commanders last summer, and we are systematically moving along this path. The battle for Bakhmut today has already practically destroyed the Ukrainian army and, unfortunately the Wagner PMC has been pretty battered. … PMC Wagner fights to destroy foreign forces that are trying to bring Russia to its knees, this is a serious turn in the war, because only one Russian army will remain on the chessboard, and all other pieces will be removed from it. And if PMC Wagner dies in the Bakhmut meat grinder and takes with him the Armed Forces of Ukraine and its forces with foreign weapons and enables the Russian army to go further and protect the interests of Russia, then we have fulfilled our historic role.

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Map Update March 30th 2023

As the bloody attritional battle for Bakhmut continues then Ukraine will find it increasingly difficult to muster sufficient forces to launch its much heralded spring counter offensive.

Yet numerous Ukrainian sources suggest that President Zelensky is going to try and hold Bakhmut while at the same time hoping that Western military supplies will enable the UAF to counter attack.

This is a high risk strategy as the fall of Bakhmut, while the UAF is preparing for a spring offensive, would have serious consequences for the outcome of the war. The Ukrainian Telegram channel “Resident” on 27 March acknowledged this danger:

If Russia secured Bakhmut then Ukraine will never mount such a defence again. The west will downplay this of course but in truth it’s all over for the defence of Ukraine. For reference the fall of Bakhmut would be like An army losing a castle and having to defend from barns and from homes. They will continue to fight but it will be in constant retreat.

In the fog of war it is always difficult to ascertain developments on the battlefield. One thing we can say with some certainty is that the Western media is lying to the public about the true state of affairs on the pivotal battlefield of Bakhmut.

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Russian ammunition warehouse in Bakhmut

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