Derek Carr is a QB that I can't put my thumb on. Once upon a time I thought he was going to be the next great QB, and well he is not a terrible QB, but it'd be hard to convince me he's truly great at the moment. Weirdly enough, if he were to finish his career very strong, he could still end up being considered a great. If he finishes his career with much of the same QB play or worse, he'll be remembered as a barely above average, nice QB. I believe either scenario is possible for Carr.
It will be close to a decade now since Carr had a very nice breakout season with the then Oakland Raiders. Carr was extremely close to winning league MVP that season (2016/17), I remember personally believing he was the favorite. Not only that but the Raiders were on track to potentially be a top seed and seemed to be a real playoff threat. The Raiders looked like a future team to be reckoned with, they were on top of the world really. Until, at the very end of that season, Carr got decimated by several injuries leading to the Raiders fading away entirely.
Since then, Carr and the Raiders failed to reach that level of dominance. They had only a single winning record in the six seasons after that lone great one. Carr has mostly still passed the eye test, and has put up a lot of good numbers in that time. I think a lot of the problems with the Raiders lack of success was due to mostly bad defenses and a lack of talent as a whole on the team. When Carr had that great season in 2016 he had Amari Cooper AND Michael Crabtree put up 1,000 yard seasons. Also a lot of coaching changes and location changes and overall franchise instability didn't help matters either.
Carr is not free of fault either though. He did seem hesitant and passive a lot of times at QB over the past six seasons.
Carr is for sure at a crossroads of his career in terms of overall legacy I would say. He's 32 years old entering his tenth season in the NFL and with a new team for the first time in his career in the New Orleans Saints.
As a whole, Carr is probably in an upgraded situation. The Saints have been a solid enough organization. Prior and post Brees-era, they've been a bit questionable. But still an upgrade over the Raiders. Especially in recent history. The Saints are nearly always at least competitive if not significantly better, in the championship conversation. They draft pretty well overall too.
Currently the Saints have a good defense and good offensive weapons. I can totally see the Saints winning a weak NFC South and Carr having his best season in awhile.
If Carr doesn't lead the Saints to a winning record ASAP, I will start raising some eyebrows about whether or not he's a top fifteen QB. The NFC as a whole is looking weak. Carr does not have to deal with an insane AFC West, which must be nice.
I think there's a chance that Carr was a product of a bad situation, much like Stafford with the Lions. But the decent thing for Carr is, he's significantly younger than Stafford than when Stafford left Detroit.
If you look at Carr's career stats, other than his W-L record, he has some strong career stats. 35,000+ passing yards, 200+ passing touchdowns, has a strong 91.8 career QBR, has stayed mostly healthy - never playing less than 15 games in his entire career. 4x Pro Bowls in there too.
I think in these next couple of seasons we will be able to tell, once and for all, just how good Derek Carr is or isn't.
