Today the exchange closed early for tomorrow's 4th of July holiday.
The HUI ended down -4.04 points (-2.18%) with a close at 181.66. On the daily chart both the fast and slow stochastics are heading down and both have re-entered oversold territory. MACD is heading down and in negative territory.
GLD ended down -$1.93 (-1.64%) with a close at 116.09. On the daily chart both the fast and slow stochastics are heading down and the fast has rejoined the slow in oversold territory. MACD is dropping fast and in negative territory.
SLV ended down -$0.41 (-2.61%) with a close at 15.30. On the daily chart both the fast and the slow stochastics are heading down, with both K lines barely entering oversold territory. MACD is downward in negative territory with negative crossover.
Today belonged entirely to the Bears. Friday I posted "On Monday the Bears must take advantage and drive the HUI down through 185.03 and down to the next daily target levels of 181.84, 176.18 and 167.86." That is exactly what the Bears did today a true mission accomplished.
The main purpose of this blog is to demonstrate that the HUI trades in a very orderly fashion in time and price. Every day I post daily target numbers and short term target numbers to demonstrate this order. The daily numbers are calculated based upon set mathematical formulas of previous moves from high to low or low to high on daily charts. The short term target numbers utilize the same formula based upon moves in the thirty minute charts.
Rules of the game are if the high, low or the close of the day is within 0.50 points of a daily target number we have a hit. If on the short term intraday target numbers there is a high, low or close on a thirty minute bar within 0.02 points we have a hit. We have perfect price discovery. I know this heresy to many who follow the gold market. If it is all manipulated by some secret cabal or by super fast computers, then how do these numbers reappear with multiple hits day in and day out? This is a question to ponder to open your mind and think of the possibilities.
On June 14th I first posted in "Yup the Bear Awakens" the daily target number for the Bears of 181.84. I have mentioned 181.84 in most of my posts since that time, including last Friday. Today the close at 181.66, clearly within 0.50 points of 181.84, is a hit and constitutes perfect price discovery on the daily chart. Price discovery posted here 13 trading sessions ago. I hope that gives you some pause to consider the implications.
As for the intraday 30 minute charts, in the post on June 27th titled "Bulls go chips in and the Bears call the Bluff", the following numbers were given for the 30 minute charts:
191.51
190.66
189.89
189.3
188.28
186.68
185.04 (essentially the same as the daily target)
184.06
182.32
Today we got a single hit at the low of the 12:00 bar at 182.32 (actual 182.33), not bad for numbers posted back on June 27th. In fact, these numbers have been hit, at least once, on every single trading session since being posted. Amazing to me that these numbers keep popping up.
For Wednesday, the Bears need to push forward with their gains and drive the HUI down to the next daily target levels of 176.18; 170.62; 167.86 and 165.38. With the Bears seemingly in charge I will add the following target numbers to the intraday (30 minute charts): 180.61; 179.76; 178.99; 178.4; 177.38 and 175.78. For the Bulls, not much on the daily chart to get excited about. The goal for the Bulls is first to stop acting like Ferdinand and start snorting like El Toro. The second goal is to hold today's low.
Nothing for GLD or SLV both looking weak.
These are just my thoughts and not advice. Really it is not advice on how you might want to trade. I have mentioned that I personally have a real bad habit of buying too soon and selling too soon. Last Friday my bad habit was on full display, I closed my short positions and entered small long positions. In hindsight, clearly I am a trading wizard. And as further confession, I broke my own rules and took my stop loss off before the session began. So there you have it, we are still in a gambler's market, I am playing with house money right now but what the house gives it surely can take away. Stop loss is set at just below the 179.76 mark. With the open today at 181.99 there was no real chance to "chace the market" down, perhaps Wednesday.
Final note about Wednesday, I believe the Fed will release their minutes from the last meeting which could lead to some interesting market movement. To my fellow Americans have a safe and Happy 4th of July.
As for Wednesday good luck and happy hunting.