The HUI was up 2.60 points (1.43%) with a close at 184.26. On the daily chart both fast and slow stochastics had a positive crossover (really very small) but remain in oversold territory. MACD is flat and in negative territory.
GLD was up $0.43 (0.37%) with a close at 116.52. On the daily chart both the fast and the slow stochastics are down and are in oversold territory. The slow stochastic has been in oversold territory since June 16th (wow). No meaningful rally in GLD until the slow stochastic decides to come out of oversold territory. MACD is down and in negative territory.
SLV was down $0.12 (-0.78%) with a close at 15.18. On the daily chart both the fast and the slow stochastics are down and the K line for both have entered oversold territory. MACD is down and in negative territory.
On Monday we had several important moves in the HUI the first was a close on a daily target number of 181.84 (actual 181.66 within the 0.50 point variance for daily targets). The second wasthe formation of a large gap in the HUI at 183.79. Early in the session the Bears pressed the HUI to the low of the day at 180.83, which is a new low in this move of the market. The Bulls launched an immediate counter attack pushing the HUI to the high of day at 184.88. The 184.88 level accomplished two things. First 184.88 is within the 0.50 point variance of our old friend 185.03 and constitutes a daily target hit. Secondly, 184.88 filled the gap that formed on Monday. Not bad action, in fact it is rather orderly, just a little ping pong action between daily target numbers.
On the intraday chart, taken from the 30 minute bars, we had a single hit at 182.32 (actual 182.30 within the 0.02 point variance on short term chart). Again, the main purpose of this blog is to demonstrate that there is complete order in the market and at least to give you a reason to question any notion to the contrary (I didn't say agree but absolutely question).
As for Thursday, the Bears need to reload and regain traction to the downside. The daily targets to the downside remain 176.18; 170.62 and 167.86. This current move down began back on June 27th and is a little long in the tooth. If the Bears can take out today's low then the intraday numbers that I posted on Monday are still in play. For the Bulls, well the table is set for a counter trend rally (1-3 days) CAVEAT: today could have been a one day counter trend rally given the hit of a daily target number. Today the HUI posted an outside bar up. Outside bars are always to be respected and traded. If the Bulls can take out today's high then the daily targets are: 185.03; 190.34 and 195.55. These daily target numbers should be familiar as they have been posted for weeks and been the subject of several posts. If today's low holds then the intraday chart (30 minute bars) target numbers for the Bulls are 184.96; 186.05; 187.02;187.79; 189.08; 191.13; 193.21; and 194.47.
I am currently long and will add if the Bulls take out today's high. If the Bears take out the low I will be closing the long and I am not sure about going short here given the duration of this move. This remains a true gambler's market, trades are small and fast. I actually am looking for one last opportunity to go short the HUI with a larger trade before we have a change in trend. I believe that opportunity will come soon, perhaps tomorrow or Friday.
GLD also had an outside bar up today. There is a huge gap in the chart that formed on June 30th at 117.95. Perhaps we see a move upward to fill the gap?
SLV had a close above the open which can be the basis of a rally. Like GLD there is a huge gap at 15.70. As for me, not touching it with a ten foot pole.
These are just my thoughts not advice etc. I would like to hear your thoughts and observations. If you have any questions please ask.
As for Thursday, good luck and happy hunting.