With #newsteem there are so many new dynamics at play I want to share some of the onces I observed.
ROI on having Steempower has become dynamic.
Under the linear system, everyone that had Steempower was guaranteed to earn a certain ROI in STEEM.
I knew pretty closely what I would earn every week by upvoting the same authors and making two posts a day.
It didn't really matter what I posted. A vlog or an Appics. The payouts were always similar. Sometimes an Appics doing better than a vlog.
For stability, this was great and I did enjoy making the content. It was also a good reason for me to get more SP.
Same could be said for anyone delegating to a bid bot. Returns were always similar too. (Delegating to a bid bot was basically upvoting yourself 10x a day without the guilt.)
This has changed completely.
An Appics today with a circle vote would probably work for a while until the downvote system has taken care of the bigger problems on the platform.
But eventually, that downvote system is going to look for higher hanging fruit and those arrows are going to point to circles.
Voting circles don't have to go down to zero to change behavior.
Good curation returns 18% ROI for me currently.
Proof last 14 days:
Weekly curation rewards:
Bring a voting circle under that percentage (let's say 15%) and some will change their way and the circle breaks.
It's easy to see.
Voting bots are feeling something similar. Without linear, they cannot guarantee a certain ROI anymore. Unexpected downvotes and other factors are making the ROI dynamic.
In other words, you see the ROI go down across the board.
I saw a post by a Steemian asking why Dlease no longer offers +20% APR on leases.
Easy, what could be guaranteed before can no longer be guaranteed which means more risk and therefore a lower APR on a lease.
Is it bad, all that reduction in ROI for bigger SP holders?
No, I don't think it is. 18% for decent behavior (curating) that hopefully benefits the platform is still pretty amazing.
And for the absolute passive investor, 13-14% on a Dlease should be possible in the future on bigger leases is what I expect. Leaving some percentages for a good curator to also earn a decent sum too.
But STEEM is harder to earn. I expected this and talked about it so many times and it's unfolding now before my very eyes.
All of this will obviously feel a little bit better once the STEEM price recovers (especially in USD).
And that's looking pretty good actually.
If you haven't heard Steemit Inc. stopped their power down for now and will do so for a month.
That has improved the power-down statistics tremendously and I can't wait to post the result of that in 2 days on my powerup statistics report.
There is a chance, for the first time in years that the amount of liquid STEEM out there is going down this time.
That's would be a major event and a huge tipping point for Steem.
Without Steemit Inc. powering down there are only a few accounts left (that are currently powering down) that can make a semi dent in the liquid supply and the biggest account of those currently has a little over 400k SP left to sell (30k a week).
But more importantly, is the accounts that are powering up.
Many small accounts are powering up small amounts. Perfect for distribution.
This is part of a list from the last 24 hours.
Everyone that's buying STEEM today must know by now how hard it is to earn.
I expect that STEEM to be held much firmer than before.
I'm still hoovering up STEEM myself at these lows every single day by buying a little bit. So far it's working out fine.
And because everything is open on Steem, I know other people are buying STEEM today and even if the markets decide to take STEEM lower it will just be bought by more people until the scale flips to more buyers than sellers.
Personally, I hope all this will last for a while longer.
Hopefully even going lower so I can acquire more while I still can.
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