With Bitcoin dropping below $6000 I couldn't be more excited! Welcome to Capitulation! I've been waiting on this all year!
Capitulation is here
If you've been a regular follower of mine you know that I've been predicting a drop below $6000 for most of this past year and despite it being a bad thing in the short term, I'm highly excited about it finally happening! Despite it happening later in the year than I expected, this current down-turn is completely according to my own expectations and plan. Finally we are seeing some true capitulation-action. And believe it or not, capitulation is actually a good thing.
Let me pull up some charts from my post titled 'Welcome to Anxiety & Fear - Capitulation is next' to which this post is the spiritual successor. It all boils down to the well-known below chart:
After hanging in uncertainty for most of the year, I believe we have now finally crossed over from Anxiety & Fear into Capitulation. The latest fat red candle on the Bitcoin price charts is finally the volume spike that I have been waiting on all year, and which we still hadn't had yet. This is the last and final phase of the bear market when the last so-called 'weak hands' will be shaken out.
My updated chart below will show where I believe we are approximately in the Bitcoin price-cycle:
What follows next is an uncertain grind to the downside in the search for the true bottom. If the same trajectory as last time is hit, as Bitcoin is prone to do, this would indicate a potential 50% drop from where we just dropped off from. That puts us at approximately $3000 per Bitcoin for a potential bottom. If you pull up some charts you'll find that $3000 furthermore offers some rather significant other supportlines as well.
It's sad that it has to happen, but unfortunately it's necessary that Bitcoin goes down further. This is how markets work (see the above chart again about market cycles), and unfortunately how psychology works. In to understand that you must understand what it means to hit the bottom. The bottom of the chart is where Bitcoin is so despised and distrusted that nobody feels like it is a good idea to buy it. Not you, not me. Because if it were worth buying, it wouldn't be at the bottom. The bottom is an expression of the desirability of the asset in question and in order to be at the bottom the asset will have to be the least desireable.
As such, the market sentiment of 2018 confused me greatly, but now it makes sense again. I just couldn't understand how we could have bottomed out while sentiment was still so high. While people were still "waiting to buy Bitcoin for the next bullrun!". I'm sorry, but no. As long as there are hordes of people waiting to buy, it's not the bottom. But now, now we're finally looking better. Now we have true fear and capitulation. You need only look at social media such as Reddit to see the posts of people throwing in the towel, selling their BTC and taking their losses. That is what capitulation means: the last remaining believers loose the last of the hope they still had while the red candle smashes all their hope of recovery.
If you manage to HODL now, congratulations, you'll finally be a real HODLer in the sense that most veterans of the 2013/2014 bubble always mean. Crypto winter was bad thus far, but it's going to get worse yet before it will get better. The good news, however, is that because this leg down is fully expected it also strengthens my belief in the all-important logarithmic predictions for Bitcoin. As long as we stayed hovering around $6000 I wasn't sure about the future, but if we drop down and bottom out at $3000 (or heck, even $1300 at the lowest) then I consider everything to be going as plan and I am so ready to go neck-deep into buying in a few months. Because if we bottom out then, what comes next will be the biggest bull-run that the world has ever seen and it will lead to new all-time-highs far exceeding $100K.
When, though? Not for a bit yet. In my earlier predictions I called for a 2019 Q1/Q2 potential reversal but as capitulation has been delayed I now think it may be wise to stretch those dates a little bit ahead to Q2 and Q3 of 2019. By then it will look nothing like a bull-run, and we may find us in the next 'Denial' stage where we slowly but surely take off again. Sometime in the spring, seems like a good time to me.
The Logarithmic Chart
I love the logarithmic chart so much, it's almost getting to be like a religious belief to me. It's just so darn spot-on everytime. The below chart was made back in 2014 and as you can see it has held up pretty well so far. It places us at somewhere between $20K and $100K in 2019-2020.
If you take today's logarithmic BTC chart, you can discern somewhat of a channel as in the chart below:
If you draw the trendline straight it would indicate a drop down to perhaps $4000, which is a little better than my previous predictions of $3000. This is due to the prolonged stagnant period of BTC around $6000 which allowed the bottom trendline to travel higher. However, keep in mind that in logarithmic charts due to it's logarithmic curve (see the black log prediction chart's curve) drawing a straight line is not entirely fair. As such, it is perfectly reasonable to fall below the drawn support line by a bit. It would have been better if we had fallen before though, so it would've been easy to reach the support of $3000 at the same time as the trendline, because the both combined would have offered better support than just one of the two.
Although I'm sure many are panicking, I'm not worried in the least. This is how the Bitcoin rollercoaster goes, you ride it up and then you ride it down. After a while ,you get a feeling for when the tides turn and which way they go. I'm happy to see Bitcoin drop, because after not breaking $6000 for so long I was getting worried that I wouldn't get a chance to buy BTC for cheaper anymore. I even bought a small amount of BTC a short while ago because I was getting anxious. Now, I can return to keep comitting myself to my original plan - which is to wait until the perfect moment and then buy in big time.
Please, give me more blood on the streets. Sell your Bitcoin, the end is nigh....!! The sooner we get this over with, the better!
Now in the meantime, I'm going to go read more about this Bitcoin Cash drama and how Craig Wright is doing us a great favor breaking down the $6000 barrier. Thanks Faketoshi!
