Summer is over but crypto-winter is still in full force. Despite the more or less $6000 support holding more stubbornly than I expected, I continue to expect Bitcoin to breach it sooner or later. I took a bit of a summer hiatus from writing any blog articles, but I'm back now and will be bringing you frequent content again, starting with my current outlook on the market.
Winter is here
And it has been for a long time now. The dreaded crypto winter of 2014 has reared it's ugly head once more to give us another taste of it's medicine and just like last time it is turning out to be a long one at that. Unfortunately, it's a necessary process and a result of market psychology.
At the core of market psychology is the herd mentality, and whichever way the herd goes is where the price follows. Right now we've reached somewhat of an equillibrium between buyers and sellers, with neither outnumbering the other enough to make the price move significantly up or down. The sellers are not selling enough because the price is not high enough for them to take profits and not low enough to scare them into panic-selling. The long-term bulls on the other hand don't seem to think the current price is worth buying yet. The highs are still getting lower and despite the lows marginally getting higher than $5800, it is unimpressive to say the least.
Without a majority of the herd swinging one way or another it becomes a battle between hope and fear where one side hopes that the bottom at $6000 is in and the other side fears that this bottom might break. When it comes to people hoping that their money becomes worth more, versus people who are afraid their money might diminish I consider the latter to be more powerful when push comes to shove. People are by nature, after all, risk-averse. And without a bull-run and subsequent media-hype there isn't enough new money entering crypto to make any kind of noticable change, whilst disillusioned crypto-investors are throwing in the towel every day right now. What's left are the traders who ride the waves until the waves continue to diminish enough so that no trader can ride it any further, which is a process we are seeing right now on the charts.
If 50% of the herd is bearish and 50% of the herd is bullish, then in order to become a majority of bulls one needs to convert part of the bears into bulls. Since the current market conditions are the cause of them being bearish, the only way for these bears to become bulls is if the market conditions change, and become more favorable for bullish action again. In other words: We need to go down, so we can pick up some extra bulls along the way.
That's why markets need to bottom: We need the entire herd with us, and as long as there is confusion or divisiveness among the herd it's natural inclination will be to go down. This is why I would welcome, and honestly expect, another serious leg down in the price of Bitcoin. The lower we go, the more long-term bulls will rejoin the fold and the sooner we will reverse the trend.
Summer is coming
While the dreaded crypto winter is enough to make anyone get depressed, there is good news on the horizon. Crypto never was a short-term play and it was always going to be years before reaching anywhere near it's final endpoint. At the end of crypto winter, when the true bottom has been found, there should follow a glorious bull run similar to all the previous times before. Even for those who bought in December, those who HODL'ed should be rewarded significantly. Remember that the previous bubble took us to $1250 or so, and the bubble of 2017 far exceeded that price. Even those who bought at the top gained more than 15x. I myself got into crypto during the bubble of 2013 when we were nearing the top, and despite the following crypto winter I HODLed and came out better from it than I ever thought.
If you were to ask me: 'When bull run?' I would say 'Maybe Q1 or Q2 of 2019'. But this is just my gut-feeling, and nobody knows for sure.
The lesson I learned from surviving last crypto winter is: Don't despair - accummulate while you can. I myself have not sold a single crypto for FIAT, and I am in fact waiting on the sidelines ready to buy. But at a lower price. I am confident that with me are a lot of likeminded investors. The sooner we drop lower and give these people the chance to buy in, it will herald the start of a new bull-run. Those who buy at it's lowest point, are those who will HODL the longest time for they are the ones who truly believe in the future of crypto.
Don't forget about the fact that despite the lower prices, there is more development and investment (billions) in cryptocurrency this year than ever before. Or the fact that the Hashrate of Bitcoin is ever increasing meaning more miners are entering the network, up to the point where many miners are willingly mining BTC at a loss yet they continue to see this as a worthwhile investment. Or the fact that nobody who understands blockchain thinks it's a bad idea.
So HODL on, especially to your BTC, and have no fear. If you've survived this far, you're half-way there now. It will get worse yet, but after every rain comes the sun.
And remember: When in doubt, zoom out:
