When someone suggested I look deeper into the @haejin Technical Analysis I took a deep breath and sighed.
Thinking to myself here we go again.
And although it's taken me a little while to clear my head I'm back on track and will continue my research into this supposed TA with 20+ years experience.
Wow we are truely in the company of greatness!
But enough with the pleasantries, lets just dive into it.
So today I'm turning the time machine back a month, to see if haejin's short ranged predictions are indeed forecasts into the future.
But this time I'm just focusing on one crypto coin because we all know that the fate of the alts generally rests on the shoulders of BTC.
So this time we'll just concentrate of the Beast that is BTC and see how accurate @haejins predictions really are.
Afterall we are in this to make profit right?
And as before @haejin will get a +1 when he's correct, a 0 when the jury can't make a decision and a -1 for a complete FAIL.
(Remember, a final score of '0' is just break even and doesn't suggest you'll make any money at all)
Now this post is going to be a little longer than normal as I'm doing this over a 14 day period, and haejin sometime like to double post, when he's running hot.
But as always you can just skip to the bottom to reveal the final score.
So first lets start with the Bitcoin price chart for the month of Jan 2018
As we can see we have a nice range of price movements over the 14 day period, so @haejin will have to really work for it.
So we start with haejin making some bold predictions about the year ahead
HAPPY NEW YEAR!! 2018 Shall be the YEAR of ALTCOINS MAKING EXPONENTIAL ORGASMIC LUNGES TO CONTINUOUS NEW ALL TIME HIGHS!!
Then appears to suggest a crash is not expected!
Bitcoin (BTC) overnight price action continues to meander along a corrective zone. NO! A crash is NOT expected as it is still being opined by other analysts.
NB: Note BTC corrects again 4 days time.
And he ends sharing a little of his wisdom.
Overall, once the BTC correction completes, I believe that then BOTH BTC and Altcoins will move Upwards;
Wow! So when we reach the bottom, the next move is up. Pure Genius!
Score: -1
(I'm marking harshly because he's going against public opinion, and suggesting there will be no crash)
Here he's suggesting the correction could be done and actually got this right as BTC moves up from here. However, there is a bold prediction of a 23K target for BTC which was never realised over the month, with BTC currently hovering around 11K.
Score: 0
Plenty of gloating going on here but haejin is still boyish on a $23K target and at this stage you'd be thinking you could nearly double your money and consider selling your house to take advantage of this amazing opportunity.
But as we are thinking like an investor, we'd have more confidence in his predictions so it's all good.
Score: +1
Not much of a prediction here but still bullish on $23K.
Score: 0
I really hate when he quotes real numbers, to suggest he knows exactly when the chart will turn around and in this case all the numbers point to $13912. The problem is the market moved back up before this low, so if you put in a buy price around this indicator you may have missed the run back up.
Score: -1
Finally, haejin is making a little sense and he has rare win here, predicting the short term target to be $17,198 which was very close to the final high.
Score: +1
And then he has to fuck it all up in his Evening Update with his bullish runs again of $18,424 and $20,467 and even touting that $23K target again.
This is the moment a good TA would suggest taking your profits.
Score: -1
Now, this is the day where everything goes south, but haejin just spotted a 3rd fractals and is very confident of BTC reaching $20,467.
I think at this stage he's been reading too much of his dribble and really believes in this magical $23k number.
Score: -1
And a quick Evening Update as @haejin reacts to the market, instead of predicting the market like a TA is supposed to do. And in this detailed update he is clearly puzzled with charts showings highs (even $36K) and other charts predicting a low of $8,350.
Wrong, Wrong, Wrong.
Score: -1
Due to the continuing falling Bitcoin Price, haejin then switches back to a daily update as no news is good news, right?
We get a quote from plato
"what are words, but symbols of symbols; hence, twice removed from reality."
And not really much else.
Dude the sky is falling and you've go nothing meaningful to say to your followers in the middle of a 25%+ correction. Way to leave them stranded.
But I'm sure there are another nine alt coins you can pump in the day.
Score: -1
Another lengthy post suggesting he's trying to back peddle and gain some confidence again, and mentions the low of $8K a few days ago as to suggest he predicted this.
He does however have a longer range chart indicating the approx. bottom of this correction. I guess if you throw enough darts at the wall, you'll eventually hit the bullseye.
Score: 0
Ok, haejin gets the points here as a @dbrdr chart does show the price falling just one more time. I won't dwell on it and give @haejin/@dbrdr the points.
Score: +1
Ok, now he's on about having cash on hand to take advantage of the BTFD moment. (Buy the fucking dip) Obviously he forgets his followers are probably already in the red because of that last unexpected dip on the way to 23K ;-)
Score: -1
This morning update offers nothing but talk of a Heads and Shoulders Top, and corresponding dribble. It's clear he doesn't know which way the market is heading at this stage.
Score: 0
In this Evening update, haejin is predicting a bounce, which is correct, although he gives no indication how high.
Score: +1
And now haejin is a little too bullish again with a prediction heading towards $18K if it get's past $16K but in reality the bounce is only as high as $14.5K so once again it could be another missed opportunity for his followers.
Score: -1
Holy Crap! He's predicting bullish runs of $26K and $30K again. And this is moments before it drops below the 13K mark again.
Haejin, check those charts again, because you might be reading them upside down.
Score: -1
And we've come full circle as I've previously provided commentary on this prediction.
Ok, you predicted 3 touch points for BTC, $26k-$30K, $32K and $6,590 and as you can see over the last 7 days it's failed to reach that low or even get near a high.So if we waited to sell at your bottom we would have missed the bounce. No future date on the highs just makes these predictions worthless.
Clearly someone was a little angry that day ;-)
Score: -1
Final Score: -6
Summary:
Haejin really does try to pack in a few extra predictions when BTC is on a run, but this is probably just to maximise his profits. And given the fair range of values on the BTC chart you'd think he would be a little closer to break even. Which wasn't the case even though he squeezed in a few extra predictions, while the going was good.
And @Haejin was also left floundering a few times during the 14-day cycle, and didn't really offer anything up to his growing band of loyal followers. But just like a good Ponzi scheme, as long as you you have noobs coming in at the bottom, you'll always have the appearance of an active community.
So we learned nothing new here today.
This 20+ years expert should have figured out how to deliver decent TA advice by now, but only seems to deliver when the price is heading up.
Please leave your thoughts and comments below.
And as always, this research takes some time, so a RESTEEM would be appreciated, so we can spread the word.