China news roundup / Nachrichten 2024-09-12

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Why China Tech Isn’t Rebounding After Government Crackdown Ended

"Much of Beijing’s concern centers around the hundreds of millions of users that remain reliant on Alibaba for shopping, Tencent for social media and lifestyle and Ant for payments and finance. All that activity produces vast amounts of data that help reinforce the platforms. Beijing has asserted control over it all and made clear that any new initiatives must align with its priorities. That means fewer live-streaming apps and more research into cutting-edge technologies, from artificial intelligence to cloud computing and advanced semiconductors.
It’s no coincidence that every major Chinese tech company from Baidu Inc. to Tencent have announced efforts to create an AI model to rival (or surpass) OpenAI Inc.’s seminal ChatGPT — a business as well as a political imperative given the potentially transformative nature of the technology."

--- State economy 2.0. In the long run, this might destroy the Chinese economy.

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Dedollarization: How the West boosts China's yuan

"Globally, however, the yuan is used for less than 7% of all foreign-exchange transactions, versus 88% for the dollar, according to the Dollar Dominance Monitor by the Washington-based Atlantic Council. The tracker found that 54% of export invoicing is still done in dollars, versus 4% for the yuan."

--- So, not much of a 'dedollarization'.

"Despite moves by Beijing to internationalize, the Chinese currency is not yet fully convertible with other global currencies, which experts say is vital for it to become a reserve currency. Beijing maintains capital controls that restrict the free flow of capital in and out of the country."

--- Which means, the Yuan won't be much of a competition for a long time. The CCP simply won't allow free flow of capital & free exchange. 'Dedollarization' talk is just as silly as the rumours that China will soon (very soon!) allow cryptocurrencies again.

"While the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency is seen as secure in the short and medium term, Chinese President Xi Jinping in January restated his ambition for China to become a "financial power," noting that his country's system was "distinct from Western models.""

--- Yawn.

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A CEO went missing. Then his bank got a mysterious bill for $11 million

"In February 2023, China Renaissance reported him missing amid a wider anti-corruption crackdown. A year-and-a-half later, no official charges or allegations have been made against Bao.
Last summer, the Economic Observer, a state-run financial publication, reported that Bao had been in the custody of the country’s top anti-graft watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, since his disappearance. He was said to be involved in an investigation into suspected corporate bribery.
[...] China Renaissance, which revealed the existence of the $11 million bill last week in a separate, delayed stock filing, said: “The group is not privy to and has no reliable information on the status of any investigation with which Mr Bao is in co-operation.”
In fact, it has such scant information about the case and the related payment demand, which was received in the last three months of 2023 and subsequently paid, that its auditors struggled to figure out how to account for it on the books
[...] It said while the payment may be considered by Chinese authorities to constitute “property associated with a case under investigation,” it doesn’t imply a legal judgement or a fine. The bank’s lawyers have advised that the amount could be “refunded or confiscated.” It may also be required to pay more"

--- If the maf... er ... CCP tells you to pay, you pay. They don't need a reason.

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China Asks Its Carmakers to Keep Key EV Technology at Home

"China has strongly advised its carmakers to make sure advanced electric vehicle technology stays in the country, people familiar with the matter said, even as they build factories around the world to escape punitive tariffs on Chinese exports.
Beijing is encouraging Chinese automakers to export so-called knock-down kits to their foreign plants, the people said, meaning key parts of a vehicle would be produced domestically and then sent for final assembly in their destination market.
[...] China’s Ministry of Commerce held a meeting in July with more than a dozen automakers, who were also told they shouldn’t make any auto-related investments in India, the people said asking not to be identified discussing matters that are private, in another attempt to safeguard the know-how of China’s EV industry and mitigate regulatory risks."

--- Free trade with Chinese characteristics. If foreign carmakers want to sell in China, they need to make their technology accessible. Does China reciprocate? Of course not.

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US House passes bill targeting China that would limit EV tax credits

"The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly voted on Thursday to approve legislation to tighten rules limiting Chinese content in vehicles qualifying for U.S. electric vehicle tax credits."

--- I guess, something similar is needed for Chinese cars simply assembled in eg. Europe.

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US companies see record-low profits in China amid geopolitical tensions and slow growth, report says

"Out of 306 companies polled, a record-low 66% were profitable in 2023, according to the China business report published by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.The report also found that only 47% of respondents were optimistic about their business outlook in China over the next five years, the lowest in the survey’s history of more than two decades."

--- The CCP doesn't need you anymore. & the CCP never really wanted you in the 1st place.

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IMF Says China Subsidy Fears Overdone in Implicit Critique of US

"China’s aid to manufacturers has only modest effects on exports, top IMF economists wrote in an analysis published Thursday. They highlight that support has been concentrated in areas including software, electric vehicles, computer chips and green technology that account for a fraction of overseas shipments."

--- Morons. It's not so much about what China already exports, but what it plans to do in these sectors.


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How a cash-strapped Chinese woman sold her eggs to a surrogacy agency


China, Philippines to discuss South China Sea dispute amid clashes


Former CIA officer sentenced to 10 years in prison for spying for China


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--- Bloomberg: "China Detains Investment Bankers, Takes Passports in Sweep"

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--- WION: Record property slump threatens china's growth target


--- France 24: Spain's PM urges EU to drop proposed tariffs on Chinese-made EVs


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Xi Jinping: Das wirkliche Problem von Chinas Wirtschaft

"Die Verschärfung der Zensur unter Präsident Xi Jinping ist allgemein bekannt. Social-Media-Konten werden immer strenger überwacht. Beamte sind bei offenen Debatten mit Außenstehenden zurückhaltender. Wissenschaftler fürchten, dass sie beobachtet werden, und Geschäftsleute geben Parolen der Kommunistischen Partei von sich. Weniger bekannt ist, dass parallel dazu technische Daten verschwinden, insbesondere wenn sie für die Staatspartei unangenehm oder peinlich sind. Die Zahlen zur Jugendarbeitslosigkeit, einem großen Problem des Landes, wurden „verbessert und optimiert“ – und gesenkt. Die Zahlungsbilanzen sind so undurchsichtig geworden, dass selbst das amerikanische Finanzministerium verblüfft ist. Am 19. August stellten die Börsen die Veröffentlichung täglicher Zahlen über den Rückgang der ausländischen Investitionen ein. Da sich das wirtschaftliche Armaturenbrett verdunkelt, fällt es dem privaten Sektor immer schwerer, gute Entscheidungen zu treffen. Das gilt wahrscheinlich auch für Beamte."

--- Das Problem für die Beamten liegt wohl eher darin, daß die Führungsebene selbst intern nicht mehr an realistischen Zahlen interessiert ist. Es geht nur noch darum, dem Kaiser gefällige Pseudoergebnisse zu präsentieren.


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China eskaliert offenbar sein hartes Vorgehen: Investmentbanker staatlicher Finanzinstitute müssen ihre Pässe abgeben


Internate: Wie China tibetische Kinder unterdrückt


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--- DW: "Taiwan: Eine Insel als Spielball der Supermächte USA und China | Mapped Out"

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