It no longer feels like an if...
It´s just a matter of when....
It already happened in many places
The thing is that this when BTC ATH does matter, and it matters a lot it seems. Because if the when is pre-halving this cycle might run very differently than when the when happens post-halving.
Or at least that is what I have been getting from multiple sources.
And that is what worries me.
I messed up last time not trusting in the cycle, and believing that this time we would get an extended. So when people start talking about not following the cycle and possibly a super cycle I get itches.
They can sell the story very well and last time I bought it and expected it to go down to 44K and then up to 100K because of the extended cycle. Now I am not making that mistake again I trust in the cycle.
And if we dont´t get a BTC ATH pre-halving this cycle is expected to play out as any cycle.
These guys saying this are probably because their TA and knowledge is greater and better than my Baby brain can comprehend. I like to keep it simple, and from the keep it simple perspective we never broke ATH Pre-Halving.
Right now after touching 64K, we would be 3K from the ATH, Calculater says we are only 5% from ATH and have at least 7 weeks to go according to this Calendar.
This is crypto, and that does not mean we are going higher but looking at the ETF in and outflows and the recent ATH in daily inflows it feels that this current force driving the pump will not slow down significantly over those 7 weeks.
I think the previous 20% pullback was the big pre-halving pullback. Not saying we will not go back to 50K pre-halving but we are in the pre-halving rally period, so any dump will be bought up quickly.
I expect the next big dump not to happen till June as I said in my previous article:
Is it Too Late To Buy (More) Crypto or Sell in May & Go Away
Once everyone sold in May and goes away and the ETH ETF is rejected or proven to be a sell-the-news event (temporarily) that is when I expect the dump.
But this post was not about Wen Dump.
If the ATH does not happen pre-halving post-halving which seems very unlikely at the moment I think it will come pretty soon. Like within a month and fueled by the ETH ETF or a supply crunch if the BTC ETF keeps snacking on spot BTC as it has been doing recently.
Even if that is a bit early the cycle would still follow the standard trajectory this run. The big what-if is when we break ATH in the next 6 weeks. What would that mean for the cycle?
After my greedy belief in an extended cycle, my personal opinion does not matter much, but I believe that whatever happens there is no such thing as an extended, or super cycle. In the Cycle I trust.
But these guys that are wiser with me keep telling me to not be such a baby and listen to the left blah blah cycle they foresee when ATH is crushed prior to the halving.
If we break 64K and stay above for a day within the next 2 weeks I foresee the ATH breaking pre-halving.
Or the bla-blah cycle as I like to call it, As it means nothing else than on a chart things move to the left e.g. the ATH was to the right of the halving on a chart it moves more to the left. Everything happens earlier.....
And when I write everything I mean everything. basically, your 500-day bull run is reduced to 300 days. If this plays out.
I was pretty certain that we would not cross 150K BTC this run and similarly, as I don't believe this is a super cycle, I think that is still spot on.
But as I don't want to F it up again I am preparing for the fact that this might be a left-translated super cycle.
I mean while writing this little post BTC moved from 57K to 60K and even touched 64K. And those 100 days were the minimum to reach ATH after the halving. If because of the cocktail of ETF and halving the timeline shifts to the left a lot faster than expected, the silly season in which everything will go parabolic will shift even faster.
Just look at the Top 100 weekly gains:
These numbers are here way too early, like I have been saying before retail has not come in yet.
They will jump on the hype train this summer for sure because ETF inflows and breaking the BTC ATH will trigger the suckers to FOMO in and be our exit liquidity (don't tell them please).
Institutions are buying #ETF, no look at when the public starts buying!
Last Time they came back was around Jan 2021 and BTC topped out in November of the same year, alts did the same in December, and from 2022 things turned sour.
Hence a year after ATH and less than a year since retail joined, now those are the metrics to keep in mind. Or at least the ones I am watching.
Now I talked a lot about preparing myself well this time and I did.
I got into the narratives I liked.
I swapped my old bags for new bags as they tend to run faster.
I set my sell orders to ensure I am selling on the way up.
I am checking, planning, and adjusting my timelines to ensure I get out on time this time.
I am not calculating on any greedy alteration to the cycle, no super or extended cycle.
I am not planning to buy back in too early as I did last time.
I learned plenty of lessons but the most expensive one was me counting on another pump in 2022. That extended cycle, back to 40K in March 2022 and up to 100K by the end of May. I sold the lot in Dec 2021 but started buying back in at March when BTC was around 40K.
Now I should have listened and DYOR into the cycles and seen that 80% drop sign on the wall. But greedy me wanted to make a bit more, especially in alts. What a mistake that was, those alts lost another 80% in value and so did my 2021 profit.
Not this time, this time I will move my funds into a safe place and maybe some stocks and options. And I will wait, wait for the bears, thank the bears, buy what's left after the bears leave. But I will not expect the next run to come even close to this one.
We will run, mass adoption will happen and that might drive the last cycle where we can make big bucks, but I am trading this one as if it was the last one....if we get one more it's a bonus.
My goal is with my <10K investment to end up with a 100K investment paying 23% taxes over 80K profit and end up with 60K in gold, real estate, and stocks. While I hold another 20K in BTC.
Is that doable?
According to the plan it is, it's 4X from where I am now, and as I said ATH & Retail are still coming. And if not, being in crypto is the best hobby ever anyway.
Narratives Posts
What Am I buying (Pre- Halving) & More Important Why
What Narratives I Am Buying Pre Halving & Why
150K BTC ATH Post
𝗜 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝔹𝕋ℂ 𝕋𝕠𝕡 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝔹𝕦𝕝𝕝 ℝ𝕦𝕟 𝗧𝗼 𝗕𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟭𝟱𝟬𝗞
Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!
[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)
