The last couple months saw a shift on Steem. For whatever reason, there appears to be a new attitude surrounding the ecosystem. Whatever the cause, we are seeing some tangible results in terms of the numbers.
Many have posted about the change in the power up/power down numbers. Of late, there was nothing but power up (net) each day. If memory serves me, I believe there were 12 straight days where more STEEM was powered up than down. This is something that has not happened in a very long time.
We also see a similar result when we look at the amount of Steem that is being moved from the exchanges. This, too, is seeing more coming in than leaving.
All this has an impact on the amount of MVests people are holding.
Over the past two years, I watched the number of accounts and how they shifted. At present, we are seeing a nice growth rate, in the short term at least, in the larger categories.
Using @arcange's charts, we can see how this is affecting the number of accounts in each category.
I chose the chart from the last day of August (the first one) and compared it to the last one he posted which covered 9/17.
https://steempeak.com/statistics/@arcange/steem-statistics-20190831-en
https://steempeak.com/statistics/@arcange/steem-statistics-20190917-en
At the end of last month, there were 2486 accounts that qualified as Dolphin or higher, A little more than half a month later, the number is 2529, a jump of 43. Never have I seen the growth rate so high for those categories.
My theory is, especially when looking at the MVests added, is a number of people are taking advantage of the low STEEM price. The shift in the EIP might have a bit to do with it although I do not believe much of the impact is felt yet.in these numbers. The Hard Fork only took place a few weeks ago (followed by another a week later). Couple in the fact that all posts are then paid out a week later and we see there was not much time for the new system to effect things.
Instead, I believe the renewed optimism we are seeing among many people is what is causing the shift. Those who are believers in the long term potential of Steem are adding to their holdings. This is putting more Steem Power in stronger hands.
The net changes over those 2.5 weeks is as follows:
Whales +2; Orcas +11; Dolphins +30
None of this had much of an impact on the token price. We see that is still operating in the same range it has been. However, over the long term, people who are dedicated to the platform stepping in and adding to their stake will provide future benefits.
One of the keys, in my view, is for tokens to be in the hands of the strongest users. Steem might have succeeded in that area in the early days. Nevertheless, it is obvious that changed. One benefit is it did allow other people to get in and build their accounts. A low price in STEEM is providing an extended opportunity for those who are taking it.
Another encouraging sign is the Minnows had a net of -2. Even though the category lost 45 compared to the start of the month, we know 43 of them effectively moved up the ranks. This means the Minnows, as a group, are holding steady.
This leaves the Plankton. Here we see a group that could be affected by some of the changes, at least i the short run. If there is one thing the data showed me over the last couple years is that these accounts are not buyers of STEEM as a whole. Sadly, as the price of STEEM decreased, their purchasing habits seemed not to change.
We see this in the fact that one could be a Minnow for under 75 USD. While it would be great to see 1,000 Plankton suddenly jump to Minnow, it is not going to happen. One of my main conclusion is that users, overall, tend not to buy tokens. The low price of STEEM is the confirmation of this in my mind.
In the long run, this is going to be a benefit too. With the introduction of SMTs coupled with what is already on Steem Engine, we are going to see people receiving many different tokens. This will fill wallets with payouts in tokens people are interested in.
I feel STEEM will drift to the background and be a token that "operates the blockchain". There will still be distribution via the reward pool which will put it in the hands of many more people. However, most will not focus upon it and nor engage in the activities that go along with it. Only the most dedicated will be voting on Witnesses and worker proposals. The rest will focus upon the communities they are interested in and not really get into the "business end" of Steem.
Naturally, it is hard to draw major conclusions from a small sample size like two week. What I can say, after watching these numbers for a long time, is the shift is what is startling. There is something different with the rate change in these categories. We will have to see if it holds over the next couple months.
Nevertheless, I think we can conclude that, at the present moment, STEEM is getting into stronger hands.
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