Case for the Underdog

After the keys to victory for Floyd which I posted earlier in the week, it may seem like an uphill battle to make a case for Conor McGregor to win Saturday’s mega-fight. But I said I would, so here it is!

Be ‘efficient with your energy’

Fatigue makes cowards of us all

Never has a truer word be spoken than in the loneliness of the Octagon or the Squared Circle.

McGregor is as tough as they come. He has a granite chin. He would fight anyone anywhere at a moment’s notice. However his achilles heel is 'managing his energy'. He mentioned this after his loss to Nate Diaz and that was not the only time it reared it's head.

I wouldn’t say McGregor has a cardio issue. Instead he puts so much into his power punches that he fatigues himself. To draw an analogy. Boxing or MMA is like running a middle-distance race. However, at times McGregor is sprinting at sub- 10 second/ 100 meter pace a la Usain Bolt. That looks great however if your opponent is still running you could have a big problem. Floyd by contrast is like Mo Farah, running a tactical astute race knowing he has a massive kick finish at the end when his rival is treading in quicksand!

McGregor will undoubtedly need his power punches however he’ll need to manage them wisely. Else risk he becomes exhausted and getting stopped. That’s how he came unstuck in his first fight with Nate Diaz. Conor was trying to launch Floyd into oblivion with his punches and kicks. So much so he was spent by the middle of the second round. In the end a simple one-two punch combination had McGregor reeling.

He cannot afford to fade in this fight.

As Ali once famously said when Foreman punched himself out in their Thriller in Manilla,

I made him so angry he just beat himself out. He was so tired he was flailing, he just fall on the ropes. I said “Man, this is the wrong place to get tired.” I said “You are in trouble.”

And McGregor will be in trouble if he starts to gas out against Mayweather. Floyd is spiteful and merciless when he smells weakness.

If nothing else, Conor must not empty the tank.

The flipside, if McGregor can maintain his fitness, I don’t see him being troubled by Floyd power. Sure Floyd can outpoint him, however whilst Mayweather has some pop to his punches he doesn’t hit hard enough to trouble McGregor with power alone.

Don’t box, fight!

Mayweather is a masterful technical fighter. Very few, if any fighters in the history of boxing, would outwit Floyd in a ‘clean’ boxing match. McGregor doesn’t need to fancy in there. When he is in range, he should look to break Floyd up.

'Beat him like he stole something'.

Conor needs to make it feel like a street fight with boxing gloves on. Get Floyd looking to the ref for protection.

Don’t get it confused. Mayweather can fight too. Don’t get drawn into the public narrative that Floyd isn’t tough and cannot throw down if he has to. He can and has done in pretty much all of his fights. Like Floyd says he has proven he can take it as well as give it. However what Floyd does so well is maintain his discipline, concentration and composure and always returns to his boxing. Where is shines above all of his rivals.

McGregor must stop Floyd getting into his boxing rhythm. If they engage, it should always be a fight. McGregor needs to be the Irish Mike Tyson in there!

Be all the way or all the way in

Conor must be aware of his range. This is something he is masterful at in MMA. He must translate that spatial awareness into the boxing ring.

Conor will be use to operating kicking ranges as well as punching range. He should you that to his advantage. Dart out and in in the style that he and his team-mate Gunner Nelson are famed for. It’s a style that Floyd with have trouble replicating in the gym.

However when he is out, Conor needs to be well out of range of Floyd and his leaping left hook. When he is in range, as after a flurry, Conor needs to be all the way in, tie up Floyd if needs be, lean on his neck, push him to the floor like it’s a street fight. It would be a mistake for Conor to trade in boxing range. Conor needs to make it a brawl and make his size, strength and fighting know-how tell.

Be unconventional

In the words of Mahatma Gandhi,

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

McGregor cannot go into this fight like a conventional boxer. He has the tools to take this fight into a completely different direction. He needs to ask questions that Mayweather never thought he’d need to answer. He may need to ask more than one question question. Can he cope with a taekwondo approach to boxing? A thai boxing approach to boxing? A point karate approach. Can he dirty box? Can he clinch with an elite level MMA fighter?

Conor needs to do things that shouldn’t work but do.

This might sound outlandish. However in both boxing and mma there are plenty of examples of fighters that have achieved great success simply because the conventional fighters struggle to figure them out.

Take Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida, who rose to the top of the Light Heavyweight division, mainly due to his unconventional karate style that the elite in his division struggled to figure out.

Take Prince Naseem Hamed.

Naseem was a one of a kind in the boxing ring. He’d punch from crazy angles. He would wing in wild punches and connect flush. He would evade punches in the most unorthodox of ways. Yet he was an accurate and vicious knockout specialist.

In many ways McGregor reminds me of Hamed only a bigger stronger version. I laugh when people say this fight is MMA vs Boxing because McGregor is as unorthodox an MMA fighter as Floyd is an exceptional boxer. McGregor’s angles are something MMA has never seen before.

It remains to be seen whether his uniqueness can outfox one of the greatest boxer in a boxing match.

‘Touch of Death’ Left hand

I think most people would agree that if McGregor is going to win it will need to be by knock out and it will need to be his left hand that does it.

MMA coach Firas Zahabi refers to McGregor’s straight left as ‘the touch of death’. And it is an extraordinary punch. Even when McGregor appears to throw it with little or no effort, when it lands on his opponent they fall over.

McGregor is going to need to set it up though. Unlike an MMA fight, McGregor will have fewer things to set it up with. However if he lands it, flush on Floyd with 8 oz gloves, we may finally get the answer to exactly how good Floyd’s chin really is.

Ask Father time the question

We cannot escape the fact that Floyd is forty-one. He has also been retired for two years. It is cliche but time is the only undefeated champion in boxing. When boxer’s age it can almost seem like it happens overnight. It is inevitable that Floyd will become too old to box at the highest levels. Conor needs to ask the question whether tomorrow night will be the night.

In Conor’s favour is not just his youth. But also that Floyd has a young man style. Two of Floyd biggest assets are his speed and his reflexes. They are incredible. They not only allow him to evade punches but to get off his own counter-punches with devastating effect. Conor needs to test Floyd’s speed and agility. One thing that is being overlooked in this fight is just how quick Conor is. Conor also has extraordinary reflexes and an ability to evade attacks.

If time has dulled Mayweather’s quickness Conor must ready to capitalised.

Unfortunately for Conor, Floyd’s third major asset is his boxing IQ. So even if he isn’t as fast as McGregor, there is a strong likelihood that Mayweather can ’old man’ his way to victory and nullify any advantages McGregor has.

Written in the stars

I said I'll knock him out in the first round, and I knocked him out in the first round. You can call me Mystic Mac because I predict these things!

Ultimately I feel that for Conor McGregor to win, it needs to be written in the stars. It would likely take more than one of the factors above to come together for the Irishman to pull off the upset.

However this is McGregor.

Some of the feats he has pulled off in the UFC, you have to wonder whether he has a captured leprechaun in his pocket… To knock out featherweight champ Jose Aldo in 13 seconds.... To completely dismantle lightweight champ Eddie Alvarez in two rounds to be become the two weight world champion.

Maybe his third and final wish is to dethrone the P4P boxing king, Floyd Mayweather in a boxing match.

IF he does it, McGregor won’t need to go searching to the end of the rainbow to find the pot of gold. The money will come to him. He need never fight again. He’d be the second coming of Bruce Lee only McGregor did it for real, against the very best, under the big lights.

I personally cannot see it. However I admire his ability to will this moment into existence.

How many boxers have dreamed of the opportunity Conor will have tomorrow. It’s the opportunity to become a legend. A myth. The martial artist who defeated the greatest boxer of his era in his first professional boxing match. I would not just be written into Irish folklore. It’s a tale that would undoubtedly endure the text of time.

And when you think of it in those terms, if the only obstacle is beating a 41 year old who has been two years retired from boxing, who is smaller and weaker than you… then it does not seem such a herculean task.

And that’s the way McGregor should approach it. As just another day in office… but this is McGregor’s office. And win or lose what an extraordinary office he has created for himself.