Formality
To most independent observers a Floyd Mayweather victory over Conor McGregor in Saturday's 'Super-fight' is a formality.
Floyd’s boxing record is a perfect one. 49 wins, 0 losses, 0 draws. He is acknowledged as the best boxer of his era and one of the best of all time. And he is facing a man who has never laced up gloves in a professional boxing match. On paper it is a mismatch.
Intangibles.
Yet in many ways, this fight is a voyage into the unknown for Floyd. He is in his forties now. He has not fought for 2 years. Floyd is a fighter that relies on his speed and reflexes. Those are often the first things to go when a boxer ages.
Conor McGregor may not be a conventional fighter. Yet some of the most unconventional fighters are the most successful. Muhammad Ali was an unconventional heavyweight when he ripped the World title from the forminable Sonny Liston. Prince Naseem Hamed and Chris Eubank (Sr) are just two fighters that have used unconventional boxing styles and angles to win World titles. The much lauded Vasyl Lomachenko is very unconventional in many of the things he does in the ring.
Unconventional fighters have a habit of changing the boxing paradigm. The intrigue in this fight is whether the enigmatic Conor McGregor can repeat his feats of defying conventional wisdom in the UFC Octagon, in a boxing ring.
Mind Your Ps&Qs
The first key to a Floyd victory is that he must not underestimate McGregor. One of the reasons Floyd is so successful is his diligence. His diligence in preparation - "hard work, dedication", is his mantra. His diligence and concentration of all 36 minutes of a fight. He does not slack. He does not take victory for granted.
In the build up to this fight however Floyd has made noises that indicate that he is taking McGregor lightly.
First he has made mention that he intends to be out partying in the week ahead of the fight.
Starting tonight Thursday Aug 17 all the way through Monday Aug 28. I’ll be at the one and only Girl Collection meeting and greeting my fans. That’s right, I’m partying the entire week before my fight all the way through to next Monday following my fight, only at Girl Collection. Bring your friends and meet me there.
Secondly, he mentions he intends to make the fight exciting and go to Conor McGregor.
This can't be a defensive fight. I got to go down. I got to go to him... I owe the public for the Pacquiao fight.
I’m hoping this is bravado on Floyd’s part. He is not prime Mayweather. And Conor is not a rank amateur. Floyd Mayweather does not need to do anything different to what he has done in his previous 49 fights. He doesn’t need to be a baller. He doesn’t need to become a brawler. If he respects the game and the approach that has made him a pound-for-pound king, he is 90% of the way to victory.
Straight Lead Right Hands
In his fights against Zab Judah and Victor Ortiz, Floyd demonstrated how devastating he can be with the straight lead right hand against southpaws. McGregor is a southpaw. McGregor will struggle to find a sparring partner that can imitate Floyd lead right hand. It is not just a scoring punch, it is a punch that can bust McGregor up and make him frustrated.
Both Judah and Ortiz resorted to fouling due to their inability to deal with the lead right hand Mayweather was landing at will against them. I could easily see McGregor going down the same road if he is unable to combat that punch.
Body shots
Kill the body and the head will follow
Never has the saying applied more than in this fight. McGregor will bring youth and general fitness to the contest. Floyd can neutralise that quickly with attacks to the body. Sure McGregor will be conditioned for kicks to the body. A well placed kick can end the night in an mma fight quickly. Yet so can a well- placed punch. And the cumulative effects of a body attack will drain McGregor’s gas tank.
Drag him into deep water
McGregor is known to fade in mma fights. It happened twice in his match-up’s with Nate Diaz. Mayweather is known for taking over a fight in the last six rounds. That has to be his blueprint for this fight. Mayweather needs to resist the temptation of trying to make this an early night. All things being equal he should have too much for McGregor down the stretch provided he goes into the fight with the mindset of making it a long hard fight for the Irishman (rather than a quick finish).
Don’t brawl
There has been a lot of trash talk in the build up to this fight. Both men have tried to prove themselves as the "alpha male". Now we are in fight week you can rest assurance that the trash talking and intensity will be raised a notch.
Whatever transpires Floyd needs to keep this a clean boxing match. If he does, it will be nigh impossible for Conor to win. Floyd does not need to prove he is the bigger puncher or has a better chin. That would make the fight more of a toss up than it needs to be.
One open question is whether the power that McGregor undoubtedly has in mma can translate into boxing. Floyd does not need for that question to be answered in this fight. Let another opponent experience the full force of a McGregor left. Floyd should be set on proving McGregor's boxing skills to be insufficient for top flight competition.
Simple Math
If Floyd’s focus is on putting on a defence masterclass the math is pretty simple. He should wipe the floor with McGregor. If Floyd underestimates McGregor or chooses to prove a point by scraping with him, he could easily come unstuck.
I expect Mayweather to be Mayweather. I think he is suckering people into believing he is partying all night and that he will go to war with McGregor. Then once you’ll bought your PPV, you’ll be cursing the screen at yet another defensive masterclass from Mayweather. Floyd will of course be laughing all the way to the bank.