The last few days, a couple of followers have asked me thru Private Messaging on Facebook about what my opinion was if Rodrigo Duterte wins the elections this coming May 9, 2016, and my standard reply has been that to give him six months, see how he will do, then if things don’t go well then we start thinking of protesting against his government.
‘Revolutionary Government’
However, lately Duterte has been constantly telling media of how he intends to dissolve Congress if they try to impeach him, and that he will then establish a Revolutionary Government.[1] Now what is a “Revolutionary Government“? In simplest terms, it is a government that overturns and disregards the laws of the current form of government, and in the process enacts its own set of laws.
The IQ-challenged Dutertards (short for “Duterte Faktards”, or “Duterte Retards”) will insist that this will not lead into a “Dictatorship”, but anybody not as stupid as them will easily see that by removing the checks and balances of the current government and putting all that power into the hands of one man … then of course effectively you will have a Dictator.
‘China’
With this development, I don’t think we can afford to give Duterte a lot of time in office if he wins because doing so will only allow him to consolidate his power. The longer he stays as President, the more time for him to enact his own laws to solidify his hold on power, and the biggest danger here will be … China.
As of now, China virtually has NO military presence in the country. No visiting warships, unlike Japanese or American warships which almost comes into the country at least once a month.
But that could change because with some portions of the military already against Duterte because of his deep ties with the New People’s Army (NPA), even going as far as promising them seats in his government if he becomes President,[2] then he will look to other groups to help him stay in power.
These groups could include the NPA of course and the Davao Death Squad (DDS) with whom he once proudly declared he was a member of.[3] Ultimately, though, he will need a more powerful ally to back him up, and that could be in the form of China. Probably because of his Leftist leanings, Duterte plans to open up and re-establish much closer ties with China again.[4]
‘Trojan Horse’
With a Revolutionary Government, Duterte can basically enact and fast-track his own laws like first kicking the Americans out of the country. He is vehemently against them, once refusing their presence in Davao for a Balikatan Exercise in 2007 and also refusing a position as Defense Chief in former President Gloria Arroyo’s Cabinet because he didn’t like working with them.[5]
He could kick the Americans out by dissolving the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US. And at the same time then craft a similar agreement, this time with the Chinese, enabling them to start maintaining a military presence in the country, like “visits” by their Naval ships, for example.
Once they have military presence in our country, that will allow them to effectively meddle in our local affairs physically if needed at the “invitation” of Duterte as President of the Philippines, like, say, to help him out against Coup Attempts. That will make the Philippines as some sort of a Cuba wherein the Americans were kicked out and then the Soviets invited in as their replacement.
‘Scenarios’
The idea of Senator Antonio Trillanes seems to be to find an IMPEACHEABLE OFFENSE NOW while Duterte is still not in power, so that if he does win, he can be impeached at the soonest possible time.
One such opportunity could be the bank accounts which will be opened on Monday (May 2, 2016). If that account holds a substantial amount of money, then that is an impeacheable offense since Duterte did NOT declare it on his Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth (SALN). Remember that former Chief Justice Renato Corona had been IMPEACHED from office after making the same violation.[6] If those accounts turns out to be duds, then Trillanes and people like him will likely keep looking for an Impeachable offense against Duterte.
Based on items enumerated above, below are the possible scenarios related to Duterte during the next month or so:
If an IMPEACHABLE offense is found against Duterte, and if he wins as President, then impeachment proceedings could take place as soon as he sits in office.
The Impeachment won’t happen right away though, it will take days, weeks, or maybe even months, so as part of his counter-moves, he could DOUBLE the salaries of the Police and Military as he had promised as soon as he sits down in office.[7] He will do this to try to bring people to his side and that could effectively FRACTURE the AFP to those for him, and those against him.
He could also start laying the groundwork for the removal of the American military presence and at the same time slowly start inviting the Chinese military into the country.
Once the Impeachment process goes underway, or when they arrive at a decision, then Duterte will order the military and police to move against Congress. This will then be critical because we will need to see who and how many sides WITH him, and how many sides AGAINST him. If some military and police people side with him, then this could be a long and bloody Civil War.
‘Parting Shot’
Rodrigo Duterte represents a CLEAR and PRESENT DANGER to the Democracy of the Philippines, and if the Bobotantes and Tangatantes of this country insists on voting him into power, then he will basically destroy the same form of government that allowed him to sit in power in the first place.
I now agree with Trillanes’ intention of removing him from power thru legal means at the soonest possible time. Doing so will minimize whatever damage he will inflict into our economy and form of government, and at the same time keep the Chinese away from the Philippine mainland.
The next few weeks will be very challenging times for the country, thanks to the lack of basic understanding of LOGIC and REASON of a section of our voting population. So hang on, get ready for a wild ride …
SOURCES:
[1] Duterte on Trillanes’ impeachment threat: I’ll close down Congress, be a dictator first,
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/564381/news/nation/duterte-on-trillanes-impeachment-threat-i-ll-close-down-congress-be-a-dictator-first
[2] Duterte says NPAs welcome in Malacañang if he becomes president,
http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-says-npas-welcome-in-malacanang-if-he-becomes-president/
[3] Duterte admits links to Davao Death Squad,
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/05/25/15/duterte-admits-links-davao-death-squad-says-hell-kill-100000-criminals
[4] Duterte: We’re better off making friends with China,
[5] Duterte thumbs down plan to bring “Balikatan” to Davao,
http://www.mindanews.com/c3-news/2007/05/31/duterte-thumbs-down-plan-to-bring-balikatan-to-davao/
[6] Corona found guilty, removed from office,
http://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/corona-trial/6099-corona-found-guilty
[7] Duterte vows to double monthly salary of cops, soldiers,
http://www.mb.com.ph/duterte-vows-to-double-monthly-salary-of-cops-soldiers/