As I've mentioned before, the higher timeframe is always in control. The old saying goes "follow the trend" but it appears that many people's sentiments are not actually aligned with this.
Lower timeframe rallies due to news events shift people's thinking. This is where professional/institutional traders catch the retail traders out.
If you want to be a success with trading, you must start thinking like a professional trader.
As much as trading is about technical analysis, it is also a psychological warfare that is heavily shifted towards the people who have the most money, and those that have been in the game the longest.
In response to my last post about a Bitcoin bottom, I've had responses on various mediums saying to me something along the lines of "wait for the G20 results".
Let's have a look how that played out again.
This could be the catalyst of a nice upward move, but on the face of the overall picture, it is a mere blip in what is a big downward trend.
It is certainly trade-able. Absolutely. If we look at the 4H, it bounces perfectly off of the support line created from a previous 4H candle close...
But if we switch to the daily, we can see that we have some compression heading down into the bottom of that weekly demand zone...
I will write a post on this another time, but compression leading into a supply or demand zone is great. It shows that price is slowing down and in this instance, the sells are losing a bit of a momentum. Compression is different to trend lines, but have a similar concept.
I've also marked with yellow lines compression leading up into that supply zone which kicked off this downward move.
The lessons from this?
- Always look at higher timeframes
- Don't get caught up in small news events
- Identify a trend before looking to take a trade
- We travel from supply to demand, and from demand to supply. Identify where these areas are to create your picture