Week 37 - Sept 11 Investment Moves

US market - up
Sept 11 Investment moves
Bitcoin - Buy/hold/sell?

US market - up

The US markets are up at 3:55 pm (EST)

Sept 11 Investment moves

Here are my trades for today.

I did not do much trading today, just waiting for time to decay before deciding what next.

Summary:

Adjusted SPY Call side - Iron Condor for $7 each (Sept 30).
Rolling Put credit spread on AMD down and out one week for $23 each.

Bitcoin - Buy/hold/sell?

I saw this one article on Yahoo Finance yesterday.

It is another price prediction from Michael Saylor, saying by 2045, Bitcoin could be worth 13M each!
What should you do with this information?

I used 3 different assumptions: Bitcoin is worth only $150K, $1M, or $13M. Then I wanted to calculate the return. The next thing I care about is just assuming that the ODD of hitting $1M is about a 10% chance.

If I'm saving 10K a year via 401K/IRA and other investments, then how much should I allocate cash to Bitcoin? To do this, I will assume 4 different models 0%/1%/5%/ or 10% allocation.

If I do not believe in BITCOIN, someone investing 10K in 2024 will have 51K in 2045.

If I pull 1% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 50K (if Bitcoin is worth zero.)
If I pull 1% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 52K (if Bitcoin is worth 1M a coin.)
If I pull 1% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 74K (if Bitcoin is worth 13M a coin.)

If I pull 5% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 48K (if Bitcoin is worth zero.)
If I pull 5% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 57K (if Bitcoin is worth 1M a coin.)
If I pull 5% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 164K (if Bitcoin is worth 13M a coin.)

If I pull 10% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 46K (if Bitcoin is worth zero.)
If I pull 10% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 64K (if Bitcoin is worth 1M a coin.)
If I pull 10% in BITCOIN, then it is worth 278K (if Bitcoin is worth 13M a coin.)

This is just a one-time purchase done in 2024 with either a 1%, 5%, or 10% allocation assuming you are investing 10K in 2024. This is the reason why I try to find $50 or $100 several times a year to purchase Bitcoin. This year, I only purchased $200 so far in BITCOIN using CASH.

Remember that the odds of Bitcoin going up need to be a factor. It's not a 100% chance, so I'm only a small percentage of my portfolio to allocate to Bitcoin exposure.