Upvoted following - there is a paper in there for publication somewhere a lot more learned than Steemit (no offence to my steemians) Pablo, maybe you should think about writing this up for a journal? I'm not seeing any holes in your reasoning but a solid peer review from wiser heads than mine could only be helpful. Maybe the tags are the issue? If this had tags like 'technical analysis' 'economics' etc it may get seen by some different people here? I think you are on to something - not so much predictive but confirmatory of price - and we need new tools for new money so I would urge you to consider building on this if you aren't already doing so.
RE: Cryptocurrencies - What is the fair value of a currency?