Well, if your patttern calculations are true, that's going to be bad news for some people. Actually, a lot of people, as it wasn't that long ago that many were predicting a $100k or more price target by The Halving. The goofball McAfee, if memory serves correctly, was so sure of a mooning that he has threatened to "eat his own dick" if BTC wasn't at least a million bucks per by the end of 2020. Although I don't think anyone will try to hold him to that consequence, I'm sure there are some disappointed investors out there who took his advice serious and placed their bets accordingly.
Then again, as I didn't make any big bets based upon his trajectory predictions, my feelings might not be as intense as those of others who took him seriously. I suppose that if I had, and made big enough bets that now bring me such suffering and pain from the recent crypto performance, I might want to see him suffer horribly too, by demanding he follow through with his word to dine on his own dick. Why, I might even be vengeful enough to insist that he fulfill his commitment without allowing him a bun or even mustard to help him finish his meal of punitive and compensatory justice.
In any case, your calculation of $16,500 target by May seems reasonable, by BTC standards...and an incredible return if applied to other investment vehicles. As you point out, a 50% ROI within 6 months is a homerun in any other arena. Nevertheless, when compared to the predictions of just a few months ago, many predicting BTC prices in the six digits...50% seems a little disappointing at this point, don't?
Whatchagonnado?
RE: BTC - What happened the last time we were 6 months pre Halving?